RBOB Gasoline - COT & Fundamental Backed Long Trade Setup
DISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is not a recommendation to take a trade. This is for purely educational purposes only.
RBOB (Gasoline) is "Set Up" for Longs.
This does not mean I am longing this blindly right now.
The tools that I am using to formulate this trade idea are not timing tools. We use technical entry techniques to time our entry.
Lets get to it.
Commercials are extremely long this market. The last time they were this long was in 2010, which just so happened to preclude a massive bull move in RBOB. When Commercials are at a significant extreme, we want to pay attention.
Small speculators are very short. In fact, they are more short than they have been in the last 3 years. The public is generally wrong, and we want to fade whatever they are doing.
Advisor sentiment is very bearish, which is actually bullish. If the advisors are telling all their clients to Sell gasoline, who is left to sell?
For weeks, OI has been decreasing while Commercials have added to their long positioning. If the public and large speculators are not interested in this market, while the commercials are getting heavily long, this is bullish and indicates this market is ready for a bullish move.
Cyclically, we get a bit of a mixed bag. The decennial pattern is supportive of some upside soon, and the annual cycle is supportive of a major low in September.
RBOB (Gasoline) is "Set Up" for Longs.
This does not mean I am longing this blindly right now.
The tools that I am using to formulate this trade idea are not timing tools. We use technical entry techniques to time our entry.
Lets get to it.
Commercials are extremely long this market. The last time they were this long was in 2010, which just so happened to preclude a massive bull move in RBOB. When Commercials are at a significant extreme, we want to pay attention.
Small speculators are very short. In fact, they are more short than they have been in the last 3 years. The public is generally wrong, and we want to fade whatever they are doing.
Advisor sentiment is very bearish, which is actually bullish. If the advisors are telling all their clients to Sell gasoline, who is left to sell?
For weeks, OI has been decreasing while Commercials have added to their long positioning. If the public and large speculators are not interested in this market, while the commercials are getting heavily long, this is bullish and indicates this market is ready for a bullish move.
Cyclically, we get a bit of a mixed bag. The decennial pattern is supportive of some upside soon, and the annual cycle is supportive of a major low in September.
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