Correlation Coefficient + CCI
Pictured above is a graph of Royal Dutch Shell vs brent crude, the correlation coefficient between them, and the commodity channel index tracking the volume weighted moving average of Shell.
I tested this indicator on a few energy stocks: RDS, MRO, BP and XOM. Negative correlation between brent crude and an energy stock coupled with an overbought CCI seems to give an indication of price reversal. Here we see two overbought CCI readings coupled with negative correlation, both followed by massive drops in the price of BCO and RDS. Likewise we see negative correlation coupled with upward CCI readings pointing to massive price rises in RDS. Seems to work on daily time frame as well but indicator length will need to be tweaked accordingly.
Correlation coefficient going negative is an indication of pricing inefficiency and momentum potential, but does not give us an indication of price direction. The commodity channel index can give us a sense of where price momentum is pointed. Both put together give us a powerful indicator capable of foreshadowing both momentum and direction.
I tested this indicator on a few energy stocks: RDS, MRO, BP and XOM. Negative correlation between brent crude and an energy stock coupled with an overbought CCI seems to give an indication of price reversal. Here we see two overbought CCI readings coupled with negative correlation, both followed by massive drops in the price of BCO and RDS. Likewise we see negative correlation coupled with upward CCI readings pointing to massive price rises in RDS. Seems to work on daily time frame as well but indicator length will need to be tweaked accordingly.
Correlation coefficient going negative is an indication of pricing inefficiency and momentum potential, but does not give us an indication of price direction. The commodity channel index can give us a sense of where price momentum is pointed. Both put together give us a powerful indicator capable of foreshadowing both momentum and direction.
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