RIF | A RARE Feeling... Basic Technical Analysis
Updated
I have a RARE feeling on this one and now I want to see if this feeling can be corroborated by the chart.
We are looking at RIFUSDT on the daily timeframe... Follow me, we will jump into some technical analysis together, reason based TA.
The orange line on the chart is the main support level. Above this level we are bullish; below this level we are bearish. This is basic, and also easy to see based on current data.
Last year, August and October 2023, RIFUSDT challenged our "strong support." This support level held nicely and became the baseline for a nice 450% bullish wave.
This year, July and August 2024, RIFUSDT challenges this same support level. It manages to wick below it but all the candles ended closing above it. A noticeable increase in trading volume is present as soon as this level comes into play.
➢ Bullish above; bearish below.
➖ RIFUSDT is trading above it, so bullish without a doubt.
The MACD bottomed in June while the RSI bottomed in July.
So bullish divergence with these two oscillators.
RIFUSDT is set to close today above EMA8, 13 and 21. Trading daily above these moving averages confirms a bullish bias short-term. In this instance short-term would indicate in the least 30 days of bullish action —that is, the action happening above these averages.
Notice on the left side of the chart, when the action moved above these three, a strong bullish wave followed.
The drop leading to the 5th of August is also pretty interesting. We see first an initial rise followed by a very strong drop; a clear bull-trap. This can also be interpreted as a "failed signal." The rise was a bullish signal but the negation invalidated it. The fact that such a strong bearish move failed to close below our "strong support" speaks poorly for the bears.
It says that the bearish move is either over or very close to being over. If the correction is not over, then only one final leg-down remains... Right now and upsurge is more likely based on the action we are seeing across the altcoins market.
Not all altcoins are the same.
Some altcoins can continue to move lower or even react strongly to another drop on Bitcoin's side. This is understandable because these altcoins are trading higher than the price at which they traded in early 2024; say January and February. But other altcoins, such as this one and others with small market capitalization, are trading at the same price at which they traded in October 2023. September/October 2023 is the level from which the last bullish wave started. This would mean around $25,000 for Bitcoin, just to give an example.
If Bitcoin was trading now at $25,000, you wouldn't be expecting much lower prices no matter what, because that's the level it traded back in October 2023 before the major rise. On the other hand, if Bitcoin is trading, say around $60,000, much, much higher, anything can happen.
All the projects are intricately connected; the market is one. What one does, the rest follows; but we need to make a comment here. Not everything can happen instantly and at the same time. Some projects move first, others move last. Some projects even fail to react, some other projects detach completely and create their own cycle. All these dynamics need to be taken into consideration to produce accurate TA.
In summary: We see some early bullish reversal signals but anything goes...
Thank you for reading.
Namaste.
We are looking at RIFUSDT on the daily timeframe... Follow me, we will jump into some technical analysis together, reason based TA.
The orange line on the chart is the main support level. Above this level we are bullish; below this level we are bearish. This is basic, and also easy to see based on current data.
Last year, August and October 2023, RIFUSDT challenged our "strong support." This support level held nicely and became the baseline for a nice 450% bullish wave.
This year, July and August 2024, RIFUSDT challenges this same support level. It manages to wick below it but all the candles ended closing above it. A noticeable increase in trading volume is present as soon as this level comes into play.
➢ Bullish above; bearish below.
➖ RIFUSDT is trading above it, so bullish without a doubt.
The MACD bottomed in June while the RSI bottomed in July.
So bullish divergence with these two oscillators.
RIFUSDT is set to close today above EMA8, 13 and 21. Trading daily above these moving averages confirms a bullish bias short-term. In this instance short-term would indicate in the least 30 days of bullish action —that is, the action happening above these averages.
Notice on the left side of the chart, when the action moved above these three, a strong bullish wave followed.
The drop leading to the 5th of August is also pretty interesting. We see first an initial rise followed by a very strong drop; a clear bull-trap. This can also be interpreted as a "failed signal." The rise was a bullish signal but the negation invalidated it. The fact that such a strong bearish move failed to close below our "strong support" speaks poorly for the bears.
It says that the bearish move is either over or very close to being over. If the correction is not over, then only one final leg-down remains... Right now and upsurge is more likely based on the action we are seeing across the altcoins market.
Not all altcoins are the same.
Some altcoins can continue to move lower or even react strongly to another drop on Bitcoin's side. This is understandable because these altcoins are trading higher than the price at which they traded in early 2024; say January and February. But other altcoins, such as this one and others with small market capitalization, are trading at the same price at which they traded in October 2023. September/October 2023 is the level from which the last bullish wave started. This would mean around $25,000 for Bitcoin, just to give an example.
If Bitcoin was trading now at $25,000, you wouldn't be expecting much lower prices no matter what, because that's the level it traded back in October 2023 before the major rise. On the other hand, if Bitcoin is trading, say around $60,000, much, much higher, anything can happen.
All the projects are intricately connected; the market is one. What one does, the rest follows; but we need to make a comment here. Not everything can happen instantly and at the same time. Some projects move first, others move last. Some projects even fail to react, some other projects detach completely and create their own cycle. All these dynamics need to be taken into consideration to produce accurate TA.
In summary: We see some early bullish reversal signals but anything goes...
Thank you for reading.
Namaste.
Trade active
Final call. Almost a month later and the chart continues with a strong bullish bias.
This is consolidation. Once consolidation is over, we will get the BOOM!
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