Rivian AutomotiveShort
That's Enough.
I don't always make top predictions, but when I do, I drink Dos Equis.
I kid.
However, I have a pretty solid track record making predictions on stuff that I think looks too blow-off-y, with only two notable failures in
JKS and 
AMC - too early on both. The rest of my calls you can see here:
Two takeaways looking at the fundamentals, the chart, and the insane amount of speculation going on:
If you're long, dear god please take some profits.
If you're flat and risk hungry, then it might be time to start taking some of this short. Options get listed today, and while they promise to be wildly expensive, I think they will *either* have a feedback loop to the upside or the downside in terms of gamma flows. I think, on balance, the bulk of the risk in this is now to the downside, and I would expect a price of around 100 to be touched sometime in the next 5-6 months, if not sooner.
All of this said, I think even with a short bias in this, that there is still the potential over the next day or two to see a buying crescendo where all shorts get blown out like in
BYND in 2019 -- that may be the most analogous situation, and there, patience was needed to make money on the short side. Same goes for this.
I will be shorting small every couple points on the way up from today's open onwards, until the chart looks weak. Then, potentially add heavy on the backside.
Good luck to all!
I kid.
However, I have a pretty solid track record making predictions on stuff that I think looks too blow-off-y, with only two notable failures in
JKS and AMC - too early on both. The rest of my calls you can see here:Two takeaways looking at the fundamentals, the chart, and the insane amount of speculation going on:
If you're long, dear god please take some profits.
If you're flat and risk hungry, then it might be time to start taking some of this short. Options get listed today, and while they promise to be wildly expensive, I think they will *either* have a feedback loop to the upside or the downside in terms of gamma flows. I think, on balance, the bulk of the risk in this is now to the downside, and I would expect a price of around 100 to be touched sometime in the next 5-6 months, if not sooner.
All of this said, I think even with a short bias in this, that there is still the potential over the next day or two to see a buying crescendo where all shorts get blown out like in
BYND in 2019 -- that may be the most analogous situation, and there, patience was needed to make money on the short side. Same goes for this.I will be shorting small every couple points on the way up from today's open onwards, until the chart looks weak. Then, potentially add heavy on the backside.
Good luck to all!
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