ROSEUSDT - Perspective of a Value Buyer
Updated
Running through a value buy scenario on ROSE if macro sets up for further correction. Spot accumulation setup, no leverage.
Shoutout to TheCryptoSniper for HVF theory, elements of which are used in my analysis (grindline theory, legacy HVF levels as KLoS). Note this is not *pure* HVF theory (as current ROSEUSDT pattern is not compliant) which would give us proper and specific entry, exit and targets to allow leveraged scaling, rather than just a general accumulation zone as indicated here.
Tools used:
Volume by Price (VBP): identifies price control areas which act as support/resistance, and likewise "pockets" where price is likely to slide through without much trouble.
Key Levels of Significance (KLoS): Legacy inflection points, points of control, the like.
Point of Control (PoC): Axis of VBP fluctuations - price will have many interactions on these, and they often serve as support/resistance later.
Grindline: Typically called "trend line" but implications are more precisely defined in HVF theory.
Fibonacci Retracement: Voodoo magic.
Current fib retrace is taken from recent ATH in November 2021 to the low in June 2021 correction.
Legacy PoC still dominant:
There is a value buy zone sitting within the 0.18-0.21 range via a confluence of indicators. Legacy PoC has re-affirmed around the 0.20 level since the conclusion of the summer correction. Local PoC has, within the past week, shifted from the 0.20 level to just above the 0.5 fib, showing further strength (and potentially signalling that 0.20 may not be revisited). The 0.20 PoC level sits on top of the 0.382 fib and coincides with a prior HVF. Barring the start of a crypto bear market, the zone around the 0.20 PoC is likely the limit of discount we can potentially see within the coming weeks.
For a return to the zone around 0.20 to occur, another downleg in BTCUSDT to the 42k-43k range is likely required (and at present, still within the realm of possibility). Otherwise, the local PoC should be treated as "best value" in the context of a continuing bull market.
Shoutout to TheCryptoSniper for HVF theory, elements of which are used in my analysis (grindline theory, legacy HVF levels as KLoS). Note this is not *pure* HVF theory (as current ROSEUSDT pattern is not compliant) which would give us proper and specific entry, exit and targets to allow leveraged scaling, rather than just a general accumulation zone as indicated here.
Tools used:
Volume by Price (VBP): identifies price control areas which act as support/resistance, and likewise "pockets" where price is likely to slide through without much trouble.
Key Levels of Significance (KLoS): Legacy inflection points, points of control, the like.
Point of Control (PoC): Axis of VBP fluctuations - price will have many interactions on these, and they often serve as support/resistance later.
Grindline: Typically called "trend line" but implications are more precisely defined in HVF theory.
Fibonacci Retracement: Voodoo magic.
Current fib retrace is taken from recent ATH in November 2021 to the low in June 2021 correction.
Legacy PoC still dominant:
There is a value buy zone sitting within the 0.18-0.21 range via a confluence of indicators. Legacy PoC has re-affirmed around the 0.20 level since the conclusion of the summer correction. Local PoC has, within the past week, shifted from the 0.20 level to just above the 0.5 fib, showing further strength (and potentially signalling that 0.20 may not be revisited). The 0.20 PoC level sits on top of the 0.382 fib and coincides with a prior HVF. Barring the start of a crypto bear market, the zone around the 0.20 PoC is likely the limit of discount we can potentially see within the coming weeks.
For a return to the zone around 0.20 to occur, another downleg in BTCUSDT to the 42k-43k range is likely required (and at present, still within the realm of possibility). Otherwise, the local PoC should be treated as "best value" in the context of a continuing bull market.
Note
Here's another potential scenario for interested value buyers - rising wedge momentum breaks to a minor downside, into symmetrical structure with 0.27 PoC coinciding with local 0.238 fib as a likely second impulse low if this were to play out. AKA good buy zone on an even better technical pattern which potentially could merit the use of leverage, come the third impulse.
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