Probability Analysis Based on Technical Indicators:

1. Bullish Scenario (Rebound towards $16 or higher):

MACD: Signs of bullish crossover → 60% probability of continued upward movement.

Stochastic: Exiting oversold territory → 70% probability of upward momentum.

Bollinger Bands: Rebound from the lower band and approaching the midline → 50% probability.


Weighted Average for Bullish Scenario: 60% probability of reaching the $16 resistance level.


2. Bearish Scenario (Breakdown below $14):

If the price fails to break above the Bollinger midline and the MACD crossover is not confirmed → 40% probability of dropping to lower levels ($12).




Summary:

Bullish Scenario Probability: 60%.

Bearish Scenario Probability: 40%.



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