Chart Analysis: 1. Retracement Phase: The chart shows the Sensex Index in a retracement phase from a recent high, moving towards lower levels. 2. Support and Resistance Levels: The chart indicates potential support around the 0% retracement level at 73,801.25 and resistance levels at the key Fibonacci retracement levels. 3. Ascending Channel: The index appears to be trading within an ascending channel, indicating a general upward trend despite the current retracement.
Potential Scenarios: 1. Bullish Scenario: - If the index finds support around the current level (73,801.25), it could start rebounding towards the upper targets. - The first significant resistance to watch for is the 0.5 retracement level at 75,537.72, followed by the 0.618 retracement level at 75,947.52. - Breaking above these levels could lead the index towards Target 1 (75,936.42), Target 2 (77,260.70), and eventually Target 3 (79,420.46).
2. Bearish Scenario: - If the index fails to hold the support around 73,801.25, it might continue to fall towards the lower boundary of the ascending channel. - Further decline could lead to testing the lower support level around 72,081.92.
Trading Strategy: 1. Watch for Support: Monitor the price action closely around the current level (73,801.25). Look for signs of a reversal or strong buying interest at this level. 2. Buy Position: Consider entering a long position if the index shows a strong bounce from the support level with increasing volume and bullish candlestick patterns. 3. Stop-Loss: Place a stop-loss slightly below the support level at 73,801.25 to manage risk in case of a further decline. 4. Target: Aim for the targets identified (75,936.42, 77,260.70, and 79,420.46) for the long position.
Conclusion: - The S&P BSE Sensex Index is currently in a retracement phase within an overall ascending trend. The key support level to watch is around 73,801.25. If the index finds support and rebounds, it could move towards the identified targets. Conversely, a break below the support level could lead to further downside. Monitoring the price action and volume around these key levels will be crucial for making informed trading decisions.
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