Silver - Potential Buy-in Opportunity and a Look at Price

Updated

is one of those classic investments that people tend to buy as price moves rapidly in a positive direction. By the time you hear about Silver's performance, the smart money is already unloading their holdings.
I like silver. In fact, it's one of my top long term holdings. I think with the positive traction has had over the past 20 years proves the case for precious metals, and displays the shaky ground holding up fiat currency. Silver is merely a leveraged play of gold, and it's cheap price makes it easier to buy and sell small quantities of physical holdings.
I will post a monthly chart of silver as well to show where I think price is going over the next 10-20 years. But, for today we will focus on he weekly chart and where things are headed over the next year or so.
This recent run up to $19.80 is nothing more than a short squeeze and FOMO rally. Just like I said, people only buy silver when the price is already up. There is no interest in the space otherwise, and the people who have been buying the last 3 months are already regretting it, or are in denial.
We won't see $19-20 silver for at least another year or two.
I do think silver poses a great long term buy. If you are going to hold for more than 20 years, you can't go wrong. However, if you think price will double over the next year, you got another thing coming.
I'm expecting a retest of $15.50-16 over the next 6 months, with a few relief rallies along the way. We can still play the swings over this time and make money.
Over the next 1 to 2 years, I thinks there's a good 60% chance (roughly) to retest $14.
I've drawn out the two scenarios I think are the most likely to play out. The one that plays out all depends on how price behaves over the next 6 months, and how soon we get a strong relief rally.
If the rally happens too soon, I think we move back down to $14 and don't see $18-19 until late 2021.
If we have a healthy correction down to $15-16 and have a later rally, I think we could see $18-19 sooner.
The main thing to keep in mind is that overhead resistance keeping us in this long term wedge. The market will respect this pattern, until of course it doesn't.
Keep your eye on the swings of this market, and you might make some coin (pun intended).
Thanks for stopping by!

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I accidentally deleted one of the drawings for price action...

Here ya go!

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Shorter term look at price action.
I'm expecting silver to coil into this downward wedge, then relief push to the upside, then a rejection at the overhead resistance of this bigger wedge.
Market makers will be looking to crush longs.

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Maybe I have some bias, but I made some changes to the consolidation channel. I think we will see some distribution here before a move down. Nothing more excited than a quick move in silver to get your attention. Seems a bit impulsive to me...

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We have a breakout, but this move feels impulsive. We will see if it has legs.
Check out the stochastic RSI...

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Update on my weekly chart outlook

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Already a rejection from breakout like I mentioned two updates ago... looking like silver is setting up for a short term head and shoulders pattern here.

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It's been awhile since I've updated this post, but this is what I'm looking at on the daily chart.

micahjmiller

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