Is silver’s counter-trend rally nearly done?
Silver has rallied an impressive 14% in less than a month off its late September low, more the tripling the corresponding gain in gold, but the rally may soon peter out as the metal approaches a key area of resistance near 24.80.
As our analyst Matt Simpson has been noting on twitter (cLeverEdge) throughout the week, silver formed a well-defined “inverted head-and-shoulders” pattern in the latter half of September and first half of October. For the uninitiated, this pattern shows a shift from a downtrend (lower lows and lower highs) and an uptrend (higher highs and higher lows) and often marks a significant bottom in the chart.
The pattern was confirmed by last week’s break above the “neckline” at 23.15. The textbook interpretation of this pattern then points to a measured move objective equal to the height of the pattern, or roughly $1.70, up at $24.85. Interestingly, this target area corresponds with the metal’s early September highs at $24.80.
Now, with the daily RSI indicator approaching overbought territory (70) and a key confluence of resistance levels in the upper-24.00s, the odds are shifting toward at least profit-taking pullback to below $24.00 and potentially a resumption of the medium-term downtrend.
Only a confirmed break above the $24.80 would shift the medium-term bearish bias as the downtrend is called into question. Until then, the (medium-term) trend is the friend of silver traders, the recent sharp rally notwithstanding.
As our analyst Matt Simpson has been noting on twitter (cLeverEdge) throughout the week, silver formed a well-defined “inverted head-and-shoulders” pattern in the latter half of September and first half of October. For the uninitiated, this pattern shows a shift from a downtrend (lower lows and lower highs) and an uptrend (higher highs and higher lows) and often marks a significant bottom in the chart.
The pattern was confirmed by last week’s break above the “neckline” at 23.15. The textbook interpretation of this pattern then points to a measured move objective equal to the height of the pattern, or roughly $1.70, up at $24.85. Interestingly, this target area corresponds with the metal’s early September highs at $24.80.
Now, with the daily RSI indicator approaching overbought territory (70) and a key confluence of resistance levels in the upper-24.00s, the odds are shifting toward at least profit-taking pullback to below $24.00 and potentially a resumption of the medium-term downtrend.
Only a confirmed break above the $24.80 would shift the medium-term bearish bias as the downtrend is called into question. Until then, the (medium-term) trend is the friend of silver traders, the recent sharp rally notwithstanding.
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