Bottom or Bear Flag?
Precious Metals, Today's Focus
The markets are highly emotional and started Wednesday strong before ending the day in the red. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.6%, while the S&P 500 slid 0.8%. The Nasdaq Composite ended the day down over 1%. Gold spent much of the day in positive territory, while Silver took clues from Copper, and futures prices seemingly folded into the close.
Stock futures are pointing lower as investors await initial claims data today: 241k Exp vs. 249k last week. JPMorgan now sees a 35% chance the US economy will enter a recession this year. JPMorgan sees the Fed cutting rates by half a percentage point in September and November. Traders await wholesale inventory figures and a 30-year bonds auction of $25 billion.
Today's Economic Focus
Unemployment Claims - Forecast 241k Previous 249k
(The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week)
Final Wholesale Inventories m/m - Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.2%
(Change in the total value of goods held in inventory by wholesalers)
30-y Bond Auction
FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
Gold
Technicals - (December - Z)
Gold futures continue to remain constructive as futures see a series of higher lows on the daily chart. Futures see their first major support at the 50 DMA at 2422.6, followed by psychological support at 2400 down to the trend reversal point at 2398.2. Futures will need to retrace the August 6 highs of 2459.5 in order to attack the bull trade trigger at 2482.0
Gold (Dec)—Daily stochastics are correcting, indicating a lack of fresh buying. DMI + remains narrowly over DMI -, indicating the market remains more neutral in posture. The average true range (ATR) is 42.0 per day.
For Trend Traders
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 2482.0*** (Bull trade Trigger), 2500*** (Psychological), 2537.7*** (Contract Highs)
Pivot: 2454-2450***
Support: 2422.6 (50 DMA)***, 2400**(Psychological), 2398.2*** (Bear Trend Trigger), 2345-2350***
Silver
Technicals (September - U)
Silver futures bounce in the overnight session after testing the 200 DMA at 26.58. The Gold/Silver ratio continues to uptick with 90:1 and will most likely need a bounce in copper inorder to play catch up on the Gold market.
The first pivot is at 28, followed by the first resistance at 29.08. Traders must see a move above the 50 DMA at 29.94 to trigger ETF inflows and momentum traders.
Silver (Sept) - Daily stochastics are correcting back into oversold territory. DMI - is above DMI +, and the ADX is rising, indicating that the market is back in a correction phase. The average true range (ATR) is 97 cents per day.
For Trend Traders
Bias: Bearish/Neutral
Bear Trade Trigger: 27.975
Bear Trade Trigger Date: July 25
Trend Reversal Point: 29.85
Resistance: 28.00**29.08*** (July 25 High), 30.00***(Psychological), 29.91*** (50 DMA), 29.85** (Trend Reversal Point), 32.00-32.50****
Pivot: 28.00
Support: 26.58**** (200 DMA)
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: tradingview.com/cme/
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
The markets are highly emotional and started Wednesday strong before ending the day in the red. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.6%, while the S&P 500 slid 0.8%. The Nasdaq Composite ended the day down over 1%. Gold spent much of the day in positive territory, while Silver took clues from Copper, and futures prices seemingly folded into the close.
Stock futures are pointing lower as investors await initial claims data today: 241k Exp vs. 249k last week. JPMorgan now sees a 35% chance the US economy will enter a recession this year. JPMorgan sees the Fed cutting rates by half a percentage point in September and November. Traders await wholesale inventory figures and a 30-year bonds auction of $25 billion.
Today's Economic Focus
Unemployment Claims - Forecast 241k Previous 249k
(The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week)
Final Wholesale Inventories m/m - Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.2%
(Change in the total value of goods held in inventory by wholesalers)
30-y Bond Auction
FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
Gold
Technicals - (December - Z)
Gold futures continue to remain constructive as futures see a series of higher lows on the daily chart. Futures see their first major support at the 50 DMA at 2422.6, followed by psychological support at 2400 down to the trend reversal point at 2398.2. Futures will need to retrace the August 6 highs of 2459.5 in order to attack the bull trade trigger at 2482.0
Gold (Dec)—Daily stochastics are correcting, indicating a lack of fresh buying. DMI + remains narrowly over DMI -, indicating the market remains more neutral in posture. The average true range (ATR) is 42.0 per day.
For Trend Traders
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 2482.0*** (Bull trade Trigger), 2500*** (Psychological), 2537.7*** (Contract Highs)
Pivot: 2454-2450***
Support: 2422.6 (50 DMA)***, 2400**(Psychological), 2398.2*** (Bear Trend Trigger), 2345-2350***
Silver
Technicals (September - U)
Silver futures bounce in the overnight session after testing the 200 DMA at 26.58. The Gold/Silver ratio continues to uptick with 90:1 and will most likely need a bounce in copper inorder to play catch up on the Gold market.
The first pivot is at 28, followed by the first resistance at 29.08. Traders must see a move above the 50 DMA at 29.94 to trigger ETF inflows and momentum traders.
Silver (Sept) - Daily stochastics are correcting back into oversold territory. DMI - is above DMI +, and the ADX is rising, indicating that the market is back in a correction phase. The average true range (ATR) is 97 cents per day.
For Trend Traders
Bias: Bearish/Neutral
Bear Trade Trigger: 27.975
Bear Trade Trigger Date: July 25
Trend Reversal Point: 29.85
Resistance: 28.00**29.08*** (July 25 High), 30.00***(Psychological), 29.91*** (50 DMA), 29.85** (Trend Reversal Point), 32.00-32.50****
Pivot: 28.00
Support: 26.58**** (200 DMA)
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: tradingview.com/cme/
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.