The SLRX slide and its is not PDUFA
Updated
What did I missed that caused the 
SLRX to slid? Was there an indicator that I should've taken as an exit plan? or is there some indications that I should have taken into consideration as one of my entry criteria? Did I also missed any information I missed prior taking a position?
Recap of catalyst:
- PDUFA for Seclidemstat in P 1/2 Ewing Sarcoma scheduled on June 17, 2020
- Meeting with the Pediatric Oncology Subcommittee of the Oncologic Drugs Advisory Committee (ODAC) from June 17,2020 to June 18, 2020
I was listening to the meeting and during that time the team from SLRX were doing there presentation. I immediately then I noticed that the stock dropped significantly and I nearly got stopped out. At that point, it made me think that this maybe manipulated OR people were locking in their profit. I stick on the latter idea and held on my position because when the dropped happen, the data was not presented by SLRX representatives (see box figure below).
However, when I was visiting the NNBRV in Stocktwits the next day (or the day after I think). I noticed that NBRV disclosed that the PDUFA could be delayed due to COVID19. This when it strike me that I made my entry too soon because I did not account that the FDA decision would be delayed more and the results from the ODAC meeting will not come into fruition immediately. After all, SLRX has been riding so high for the past week and it was overdue for a retrace. Secondly, I did not noticed that the volume was already thinning out since June 15 then if you compare it with the previous pops it has a very obvious pattern (I just noticed it today and check the blue arrows).
The question now is, do I sell or do I accumulate? If I accumulate then where?
Lets be mindful that PDUFA plays are very very very risky and therefore varies with your risk appetite. If you can tolerate to see 50% to 80% loss in your portfolio then by all means add more. However, the way I have done it is I used the 50%-60% range but that equates to a measly $700 or less than 0.05% of my total portfolio (probably MM are laughing at my position). The upside however is significant if they gained approval.
I am planning to add a little more to reduce my average, but that will vary how the stock reacts next week on the SMA20 and the support line. Although, StochRSI and the "low volume then pop" appeared today that may indicate I have lost the opportunity to add more. Especially when the ADX DI states that the current trend (uptrend) is still strong. But MACD is disagreeing because it is starting to curl that typical indicates that the trend might shift soon. Of course, MACD might change next week and it is small bios after all.
Takeaways:
Lastly, there has been a lot of noises regarding with the "compliance" in Stocktwits. Sure, it is comforting to know that SLRX has gained compliance because this reduces the risks for reverse split. However, the risks of the PDUFA overshadowed the NASDAQ listing requirements and I am never a believer of "compliance play".
My current sentiment: Neutral
SLRX to slid? Was there an indicator that I should've taken as an exit plan? or is there some indications that I should have taken into consideration as one of my entry criteria? Did I also missed any information I missed prior taking a position?Recap of catalyst:
- PDUFA for Seclidemstat in P 1/2 Ewing Sarcoma scheduled on June 17, 2020
- Meeting with the Pediatric Oncology Subcommittee of the Oncologic Drugs Advisory Committee (ODAC) from June 17,2020 to June 18, 2020
I was listening to the meeting and during that time the team from SLRX were doing there presentation. I immediately then I noticed that the stock dropped significantly and I nearly got stopped out. At that point, it made me think that this maybe manipulated OR people were locking in their profit. I stick on the latter idea and held on my position because when the dropped happen, the data was not presented by SLRX representatives (see box figure below).
However, when I was visiting the NNBRV in Stocktwits the next day (or the day after I think). I noticed that NBRV disclosed that the PDUFA could be delayed due to COVID19. This when it strike me that I made my entry too soon because I did not account that the FDA decision would be delayed more and the results from the ODAC meeting will not come into fruition immediately. After all, SLRX has been riding so high for the past week and it was overdue for a retrace. Secondly, I did not noticed that the volume was already thinning out since June 15 then if you compare it with the previous pops it has a very obvious pattern (I just noticed it today and check the blue arrows).
The question now is, do I sell or do I accumulate? If I accumulate then where?
Lets be mindful that PDUFA plays are very very very risky and therefore varies with your risk appetite. If you can tolerate to see 50% to 80% loss in your portfolio then by all means add more. However, the way I have done it is I used the 50%-60% range but that equates to a measly $700 or less than 0.05% of my total portfolio (probably MM are laughing at my position). The upside however is significant if they gained approval.
I am planning to add a little more to reduce my average, but that will vary how the stock reacts next week on the SMA20 and the support line. Although, StochRSI and the "low volume then pop" appeared today that may indicate I have lost the opportunity to add more. Especially when the ADX DI states that the current trend (uptrend) is still strong. But MACD is disagreeing because it is starting to curl that typical indicates that the trend might shift soon. Of course, MACD might change next week and it is small bios after all.
Takeaways:
Lastly, there has been a lot of noises regarding with the "compliance" in Stocktwits. Sure, it is comforting to know that SLRX has gained compliance because this reduces the risks for reverse split. However, the risks of the PDUFA overshadowed the NASDAQ listing requirements and I am never a believer of "compliance play".
My current sentiment: Neutral
Trade active
Current position: 1568 Average Price: $1.53
Cost basis: $2,400
I might add a little bit more to lower my average after it confirms that it bounces on the support line.
Trade closed: target reached
Out at $2.00
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