The classic bull trap pattern comes when we have an initial sell off. Some sort of retracement of that and then a failure to make a new high forming a capitulation pattern.
Everyone knows this pattern, it's the classic "Return to Normal" in the bubble template.
However, we also have modified versions of bull traps that make new highs. While this seems paradoxical, what better place is there to trap bulls than ATH?
When this patterns forms it's most often expressed as a butterfly top. There's the initial drop. A false continuation of the classic bull trap and then a spike high.
This forms a "W" pattern with the spike high usually ending in the 1.61 - 2.20 zone.
This is something we commonly find at the end of big uptrends.
Read more about uptrend and reversal formation here:
Everyone knows this pattern, it's the classic "Return to Normal" in the bubble template.
However, we also have modified versions of bull traps that make new highs. While this seems paradoxical, what better place is there to trap bulls than ATH?
When this patterns forms it's most often expressed as a butterfly top. There's the initial drop. A false continuation of the classic bull trap and then a spike high.
This forms a "W" pattern with the spike high usually ending in the 1.61 - 2.20 zone.
This is something we commonly find at the end of big uptrends.
Read more about uptrend and reversal formation here:
Note
SMCI down 20% off the butterfly.Note
Make or break level for the SMCI uptrend I think. if we make a break here I think that's going to signify the end of the uptrend for the foreseeable future.
Stops trailed here. Max risk area for bears, but very good for them if it breaks.
Trade active
Full pop complete along with the classic return to the mean. 
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Next question is will this be a low or will NVDA follow SMCI. See detailed thoughts in the lined idea.
We may be inside of a crash event to 3000 in SPX.
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
We may be inside of a crash event to 3000 in SPX.
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.