Supporting Arguments
Investment Thesis
Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI), founded in Silicon Valley, has been a niche supplier of server solutions for data centers for over 15 years. The company has significantly disrupted the server and storage systems market, achieving growth rates surpassing its competitors. SMCI offers a comprehensive 360° solution, covering hardware, support, software, and security. An independent audit found no evidence of fraud or misconduct by the company’s management, yet the stock trades at highly attractive valuation multiples while maintaining strong growth potential.
Fundamental Undervaluation Due to Past Issues. Currently, SMCI trades at a forward P/E ratio of 10, while its closest competitors (Dell, Lenovo, HP), which offer only partial infrastructure solutions, trade at an average multiple of 11.6. The emergence of more efficient AI infrastructure solutions in China (such as DeepSeek) is putting pressure on the industry. However, Jevons' paradox suggests that increased efficiency may drive demand for AI development among companies that previously avoided entering the market due to high barriers to entry. Even if demand for data center infrastructure weakens, it remains positive due to the exponential growth of global data consumption.
FY 2024 Financial Results Release. The company must publish its financial reports by February 25. Currently, the market fears a potential delisting, but we believe this risk is low. It is important to note that SMCI recently underwent changes in its finance department, which naturally affected the reporting timeline. It is likely that the company’s management has reviewed and adjusted its financial disclosure processes. Given that SEC reviews have been positive and there have been no major delays in the past, it is difficult to imagine that the company will fail to report on time. The next month will be crucial for the stock, and we see a high probability of a valuation reassessment by investors.
Our target price for SMCI stock is $40, with a "Buy" recommendation. We recommend setting a stop-loss at $22.5.
- Fundamental Undervaluation Due to Past Issues: SMCI experienced a significant sell-off following unproven allegations of financial reporting fraud. Currently, the company trades at a discount compared to peers that only partially focus on data center infrastructure solutions.
- Financial Results Release for FY 2024: The market is pricing in a potential NASDAQ delisting due to delays in financial reporting. The current deadline for the company is February 25, which is likely to be a decisive moment for this investment thesis.
Investment Thesis
Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI), founded in Silicon Valley, has been a niche supplier of server solutions for data centers for over 15 years. The company has significantly disrupted the server and storage systems market, achieving growth rates surpassing its competitors. SMCI offers a comprehensive 360° solution, covering hardware, support, software, and security. An independent audit found no evidence of fraud or misconduct by the company’s management, yet the stock trades at highly attractive valuation multiples while maintaining strong growth potential.
Fundamental Undervaluation Due to Past Issues. Currently, SMCI trades at a forward P/E ratio of 10, while its closest competitors (Dell, Lenovo, HP), which offer only partial infrastructure solutions, trade at an average multiple of 11.6. The emergence of more efficient AI infrastructure solutions in China (such as DeepSeek) is putting pressure on the industry. However, Jevons' paradox suggests that increased efficiency may drive demand for AI development among companies that previously avoided entering the market due to high barriers to entry. Even if demand for data center infrastructure weakens, it remains positive due to the exponential growth of global data consumption.
FY 2024 Financial Results Release. The company must publish its financial reports by February 25. Currently, the market fears a potential delisting, but we believe this risk is low. It is important to note that SMCI recently underwent changes in its finance department, which naturally affected the reporting timeline. It is likely that the company’s management has reviewed and adjusted its financial disclosure processes. Given that SEC reviews have been positive and there have been no major delays in the past, it is difficult to imagine that the company will fail to report on time. The next month will be crucial for the stock, and we see a high probability of a valuation reassessment by investors.
Our target price for SMCI stock is $40, with a "Buy" recommendation. We recommend setting a stop-loss at $22.5.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.