It’s the semis which are the hallmark of a cyclical bull market. It is always the Semis which indicate the start of a bull market and the first to fold over towards the end of a cyclical bull market. Hence the outperformance of Semis as a momentum sector is important from a symbolism perspective and from a market indicator perspective.
When the semis outperform the NASDAQ100 we have momentous bull markets. Today we looked at the ratio chart between
SMH vs $QQQ. This measures the relative outperformance or the underperformance of Semis over the broader NASDAQ100.
This ratio ofSMH / 
QQQ touched its ATH on June 2024. Since then, the Semis lost momentum with 
NVDA and 
AVGO going sideways for a year. Now the momentum is on the side of Semis. Even if the SMH is at 287 $ and at ATH with price is at its 2.618 Fib Retracement level, still the SMH / QQQ is not at its ATH. The ratio is currently @ 0.5. Before we hit 0.56 in the ratio chart just like last June 2024, SMH must outperform the NASDAQ100. If that must happen what should be the price of SMH? My prediction is the ratio SMH / QQQ tops @ 0.56 and SMH goes to 400$ this year.
Verdict: LongSMH over $QQQ. SMH / QQQ tops 0.56. SMH price target 400$.
When the semis outperform the NASDAQ100 we have momentous bull markets. Today we looked at the ratio chart between
SMH vs $QQQ. This measures the relative outperformance or the underperformance of Semis over the broader NASDAQ100. This ratio of
SMH / QQQ touched its ATH on June 2024. Since then, the Semis lost momentum with NVDA and AVGO going sideways for a year. Now the momentum is on the side of Semis. Even if the SMH is at 287 $ and at ATH with price is at its 2.618 Fib Retracement level, still the SMH / QQQ is not at its ATH. The ratio is currently @ 0.5. Before we hit 0.56 in the ratio chart just like last June 2024, SMH must outperform the NASDAQ100. If that must happen what should be the price of SMH? My prediction is the ratio SMH / QQQ tops @ 0.56 and SMH goes to 400$ this year. Verdict: Long
SMH over $QQQ. SMH / QQQ tops 0.56. SMH price target 400$. 
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.