Macro to Micro Context:
SOL is now testing a third rejection in the upper 153s, forming a textbook triple top just under a multi-month descending trendline and major Fib resistance. This ceiling has held firm since late June, despite higher lows grinding up from below. Price is now squeezed tightly between compressing demand and stacked supply, with volatility contraction apparent across the board.
The structure is coiling hard but momentum and volume must confirm resolution before positioning aggressively.
Structural & Momentum Breakdown:
Resistance Layering (Reinforced):
Triple Top: Price has repeatedly failed to break above the upper 153s.
Fib Overlap: 50%–61.8% retracement range aligns with both trendline resistance and OB stack.
Order Block Stack: Resistance from mid-153s to low-154s is now reinforced across timeframes (30M → Daily).
Momentum Shifts:
RSI Divergence: Lower highs on RSI across 2H/1H, despite flat or slightly higher price.
PVT Flattening: No fresh accumulation during recent tests.
Volume Decline: Progressive volume deterioration on each retest distributional tone building.
Demand Shelf:
Key demand and support range from low-150s to mid-151s has held through three separate dips.
This is the immediate pivot zone — lose it and vacuum effect likely down into the upper 140s.
Updated Trade Plan:
Rejection Short Setup:
Entry: Breakdown through mid-151s with confirming sell volume.
Stop: Above low-154s to account for potential deviation wicks.
TP1: Upper 148s (first OB cluster).
TP2: Mid-146s (Fib + minor support).
TP3: Low 140s (macro demand + wedge base).
Bear Confirmation: RSI breakdown + volume expansion + OB flips into resistance.
Breakout Setup (Only on Clear Validation):
Entry: Strong candle close above low-154s with breakout volume.
Stop: Below low-151s — invalidation of reclaim.
TP1: Upper 157s (Fib zone).
TP2: Low 160s (swing high area).
TP3: Upper 160s (macro breakout expansion).
Bull Confirmation: RSI > 62 on 2H, strong PVT rise, and flip of local OB into demand.
Risk Warning:
Triple tops near macro resistance are high-risk unless clearly broken. This zone is overloaded with historical rejection. Don't front-run the breakout — volume will show you who's in control.
Closing Thoughts:
With a confirmed triple top now visible, SOL is facing its most important rejection zone in weeks. Bulls must reclaim with strength or this becomes a clean setup for rotation into the mid to low 140s. Patience and confirmation are key here. Keep risk asymmetric.
SOL is now testing a third rejection in the upper 153s, forming a textbook triple top just under a multi-month descending trendline and major Fib resistance. This ceiling has held firm since late June, despite higher lows grinding up from below. Price is now squeezed tightly between compressing demand and stacked supply, with volatility contraction apparent across the board.
The structure is coiling hard but momentum and volume must confirm resolution before positioning aggressively.
Structural & Momentum Breakdown:
Resistance Layering (Reinforced):
Triple Top: Price has repeatedly failed to break above the upper 153s.
Fib Overlap: 50%–61.8% retracement range aligns with both trendline resistance and OB stack.
Order Block Stack: Resistance from mid-153s to low-154s is now reinforced across timeframes (30M → Daily).
Momentum Shifts:
RSI Divergence: Lower highs on RSI across 2H/1H, despite flat or slightly higher price.
PVT Flattening: No fresh accumulation during recent tests.
Volume Decline: Progressive volume deterioration on each retest distributional tone building.
Demand Shelf:
Key demand and support range from low-150s to mid-151s has held through three separate dips.
This is the immediate pivot zone — lose it and vacuum effect likely down into the upper 140s.
Updated Trade Plan:
Rejection Short Setup:
Entry: Breakdown through mid-151s with confirming sell volume.
Stop: Above low-154s to account for potential deviation wicks.
TP1: Upper 148s (first OB cluster).
TP2: Mid-146s (Fib + minor support).
TP3: Low 140s (macro demand + wedge base).
Bear Confirmation: RSI breakdown + volume expansion + OB flips into resistance.
Breakout Setup (Only on Clear Validation):
Entry: Strong candle close above low-154s with breakout volume.
Stop: Below low-151s — invalidation of reclaim.
TP1: Upper 157s (Fib zone).
TP2: Low 160s (swing high area).
TP3: Upper 160s (macro breakout expansion).
Bull Confirmation: RSI > 62 on 2H, strong PVT rise, and flip of local OB into demand.
Risk Warning:
Triple tops near macro resistance are high-risk unless clearly broken. This zone is overloaded with historical rejection. Don't front-run the breakout — volume will show you who's in control.
Closing Thoughts:
With a confirmed triple top now visible, SOL is facing its most important rejection zone in weeks. Bulls must reclaim with strength or this becomes a clean setup for rotation into the mid to low 140s. Patience and confirmation are key here. Keep risk asymmetric.
Note
Bulls are trying to break the trend and the triple top's validity depends on the bulls conviction. One more strong breakout close above 154.50 with volume, and the triple top is invalidated. Note
Still on the side of bears for now. Market is focused on BTC and bulls were able to flash push ATH but formed a double top in the process. Looking at volume on the 12h chart of BTC, volume is no where near the fist peak back in May. ATH retraced immediately. I'd wait for strong hold of above 112000 with stronger volume on the next closing 12h candle to enter long posisions.Trade closed manually
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.