Evening Update: Pattern is Clear, So is Strategy
This morning I posted "Today it looks like the SPX is poised to come down and tag 3712". It came down early a lot...but came just shy of 3712. That tells me we're going to ultimately visit that 3712 area. It's just not taking a direct route. Nonetheless, with all the downside movement in the ES and SPX SOL was not having it today. It wanted to go higher and now we know why. I do not expect it will be so reluctant the next decline.
With today's rally we overlapped the impulsive wave 1 bottom (now labeled (a) from July 8th) which would make yesterday's decline to $31.79 the "a" wave down (Therefore I removed the impulsive count on the chart from this morning)... Today was a simple "abc" higher into $37.2650 and just a poke above the .618 fib retracement area.
It is my expectation that $37.2650 is the high stuck in a "b" wave and now we will loose about 9 points or about 25% of the total Solana value down to $28-$29.
As a reminder my trade plan is:
I'm waiting for $28.80 minimum before I even look to buy. I want to see a reaction off the 1.0 Fib Extension. If the reaction is impulsive on the 1 or 3 minute chart...I'll buy on a pull back with a stop at the low. If I'm right and this is a B wave bottom, the C wave should take us to the $47 level minimum. So there will be ample opportunity for entries. I do not obsess with buying the low tick. There's always the possibility the purple count plays out and price just crashes and blows past $28-29...I do not want to be stuck holding $29 SOL when I could've bought SOL at $20 or even lower.
Today I started the process to set myself to actually place short trades on SOLANA. Will the account be ready to take advantage of my analysis above? I don't know. However I will advise on short trades I do in the future...if I do one. Thanks to peterbhc for his help.
Best to all,
Chris
With today's rally we overlapped the impulsive wave 1 bottom (now labeled (a) from July 8th) which would make yesterday's decline to $31.79 the "a" wave down (Therefore I removed the impulsive count on the chart from this morning)... Today was a simple "abc" higher into $37.2650 and just a poke above the .618 fib retracement area.
It is my expectation that $37.2650 is the high stuck in a "b" wave and now we will loose about 9 points or about 25% of the total Solana value down to $28-$29.
As a reminder my trade plan is:
I'm waiting for $28.80 minimum before I even look to buy. I want to see a reaction off the 1.0 Fib Extension. If the reaction is impulsive on the 1 or 3 minute chart...I'll buy on a pull back with a stop at the low. If I'm right and this is a B wave bottom, the C wave should take us to the $47 level minimum. So there will be ample opportunity for entries. I do not obsess with buying the low tick. There's always the possibility the purple count plays out and price just crashes and blows past $28-29...I do not want to be stuck holding $29 SOL when I could've bought SOL at $20 or even lower.
Today I started the process to set myself to actually place short trades on SOLANA. Will the account be ready to take advantage of my analysis above? I don't know. However I will advise on short trades I do in the future...if I do one. Thanks to peterbhc for his help.
Best to all,
Chris
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