Short

Potential retest of 130 support area

Updated

From what I can see we are at a critical level around the 150 area. I think a close above 152 would invalidate this setup. Please don't use this as trading advice, it's only an idea I want to record and see how it plays out. I'm not a pro.

We hit the .618 retracement from our recent high to low swing, which coincides perfectly with our recent downtrend line.

I think if we do not get a close above the critical area, we will see a retest of the 130 support area. Potentially as low as 120 area.

The price points listed are potential take profit areas based on Gann Fan + Fib levels from recent high to low swings.

Note

I mistyped. A close about the 155 would invalidate this on the 4h timeframe, not the 152. This is based on the descending 1/1 Gann Fan angle from recent high to low.

Note

As you can see we had a close above our descending peak to peak line, and we are currently above the .618 retracement.

We did bounce off the 2/1 descending Gann Fan line, but we might still cross it and stay. This would signal a bullish reversal.

With the descending 200EMA overhead, not staying above the ascending 1/1 Gann Fan, low volume, and no close above the crucial 155 area on the 4h, so I'm still expecting a significant drop.

Any thoughts?

Note

I know I said a close over 155 would invalidate this, but I think it should actually bee the .5 fib line at 160. This trade might still be on.

We could be seeing our reversal right now.

Here's why:
- Currently forming a shooting star bearish candle on the 1h chart - coincides with the Gann time period square root of 9 from our most recent peak at 204.
- Rejected from the the 200 EMA on 4h chart
- Rejected from the 1/1 descending Gann Fan line
- Rejected from the .5 fib from most recent peak
- Bearish divergence on the RSI 1h chart
- Huge volume spike in the last hour, yet failed to stay above the critical level

Please let me know in the comments what you think! I'm not a pro and I'm just giving my real time analysis... Any constructive input is much appreciated!

Trade active

Opened trade at 158

Note

TP 1 hit

Note

TP2 and TP3 both hit

Note

TP4 hit

Note

We are currently holding just above the 2/1 Gann Fan line from our recent low to high swing. If we drop below that we have "officially left" our bull run according to most Gann Fan trading strategies.

I won't call it a bear trend until we have a daily close below our ascending trendline around the 120 price level.

I am expecting a significant bounce either off of our 2/1 line at the 135-136 price range, or the ascending trendline around the 131 level.

We have significant levels at 133.7, 133.14, then around 131 at our major ascending trendline.

Anyone else have any input? Am I missing anything?

Trade closed: target reached

TP5 hit

Trade closed.

We are in the high demand zone right now.

If we hold this level, we could see a significant upward movement.

I'll post a new idea once I have a better feel for it.

djcraemer

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