Silicone Dynamite

This is a simple idea. Semiconductors hit $1362 In March of 2000. Now 18 years later they are banging on this ceiling. I think when the break through they will explode to the upside.

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This is a clear breakout above the 18 year ceiling. Either something really big is happening in tech or the market is deluded in believing so.

I think this is day 19 in a new intermediate cycle. The daily cycle might have another 15 to 20 trading days left. As I am in the 3X leveraged SOXL, I will be selling when the green trendline is broken. If I were only in 1X, I might hold through the whole intermediate cycle of about 3 months.

Trade closed manually

I sold SOXL tonight in after hours as I had nice gains. There is a chance the $1362 breakout might be tested again and I don't want to lose the gains. SOXL is a 3X fund and it tends to move fast. I still think there is a lot of room to the upside and will get back in if the market gives me a chance.

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It is still in the daily cycle uptrend so there is no need to sell from a pure cycles analysis point of view. The problem is that if it breaks down tomorrow, it will move a long way and give back a lot of gains.

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The cycle uptrend line has been broken. There is no good reason to be long at this point. Semis are still in a bull market though so maybe this is what will happen. Next buy point will be at the swing.

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Yesterday there was a false swing, The picture is confusing at this point. I'm sure that SOX will make another run for the March 2000 high. I have taken a half position but am not sure of the best entry.

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Semi's have made another swing. I have taken the second half of my position on SOXL. This is a risky entry point because the new daily cycle will not be confirmed until the cycle downtrend line is broken.

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Another false swing. This needs to get going soon.

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The bears put in a tough fight this time around, but they were too early. There is still unfinished business in the technology sector and the market knows it.

The swing will not be confirmed until Sox closes above the cycle downtrend line. At this point I don't think the bears can stop it.

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The new daily cycle is now confirmed and we have finished trading day 4. There should be at least 12 more days with upward bias. The bears are weak right now, but they'll be in a stronger position by next month. I plan to exit my SOXL positions sometime early next month so as not to hand them any profits.

Trade closed: stop reached

This is a failed daily cycle. I will stop out at a loss and wait for a swing low before re-entering.

Trade active

Holding. I was going to sell at open, but it looks like SOX is forming a swing right now.

Doggone

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Doggone