Timeline & Context
-The U.S. initially implemented a 10% baseline tariff on most imports (April 5), with potential spike to 50% for EU goods on July 9 unless a deal is struck.
-On June 26, Macron warned that if U.S. keeps a 10% tariff, the EU will impose equivalent retaliatory levies.
-EU offer of “zero-for-zero” (Macron, von der Leyen) remains on the table, though Washington reportedly resists.
How Markets May React
If a 10%–10% deal is struck (U.S. keeps 10%, EU matches):
-Markets will likely breathe a sigh of relief—clearing headline risk.
-Expect a moderate rally, perhaps +1–3% in the S\&P 500, as tariff uncertainty diminishes.
-Economists note past discussion: when the EU delay hit May, S\&P futures jumped ~2%.
If they agree to Macron’s “zero-for-zero” proposal:
-That would be a bullish surprise—tariffs completely lifted.
-Market response could range +3–5%, though EU has indicated U.S. pushback on full zerozero .
-Analysts warn clarity isn’t always calm: the S\&P is already priced above fundamentals—choppy reactions still possible .
If the pause lapses with no EU agreement:
-U.S. could enforce 50% tariffs; EU likely retaliates.
-Risks: recession fears in EU, U.S. inflation spike so stocks will likely fall.
-Bank strategists forecast flat S\&P (5,900), but warn of volatility range 5,600–6,000 based on trade policy surprises.
-Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Stock prices, valuations, and performance metrics are subject to change and may be outdated. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. The information presented may contain inaccuracies and should not be solely relied upon for financial decisions. I am not personally liable for your own losses, this is not financial advise.
-The U.S. initially implemented a 10% baseline tariff on most imports (April 5), with potential spike to 50% for EU goods on July 9 unless a deal is struck.
-On June 26, Macron warned that if U.S. keeps a 10% tariff, the EU will impose equivalent retaliatory levies.
-EU offer of “zero-for-zero” (Macron, von der Leyen) remains on the table, though Washington reportedly resists.
How Markets May React
If a 10%–10% deal is struck (U.S. keeps 10%, EU matches):
-Markets will likely breathe a sigh of relief—clearing headline risk.
-Expect a moderate rally, perhaps +1–3% in the S\&P 500, as tariff uncertainty diminishes.
-Economists note past discussion: when the EU delay hit May, S\&P futures jumped ~2%.
If they agree to Macron’s “zero-for-zero” proposal:
-That would be a bullish surprise—tariffs completely lifted.
-Market response could range +3–5%, though EU has indicated U.S. pushback on full zerozero .
-Analysts warn clarity isn’t always calm: the S\&P is already priced above fundamentals—choppy reactions still possible .
If the pause lapses with no EU agreement:
-U.S. could enforce 50% tariffs; EU likely retaliates.
-Risks: recession fears in EU, U.S. inflation spike so stocks will likely fall.
-Bank strategists forecast flat S\&P (5,900), but warn of volatility range 5,600–6,000 based on trade policy surprises.
-Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Stock prices, valuations, and performance metrics are subject to change and may be outdated. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. The information presented may contain inaccuracies and should not be solely relied upon for financial decisions. I am not personally liable for your own losses, this is not financial advise.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.