SP500 - A pullback is imminent

Updated

We've witnessed a robust rally in Q4, just as I anticipated. Currently, I am mostly in cash, awaiting an opportune moment for a swing entry. My medium-term plan includes the following considerations:

I've identified several reliable selling signals on my indicators for the weekly timeframe. However, in the short term, I believe the market still has some upward potential, possibly reaching levels between 4900-4950 before experiencing a substantial drop to 4500-4600.

Therefore, my weekly resistance is set at 4900-4950, aligning with a cycle high timeframe around mid-February (12-16). Additionally, my weekly support is at 4500-4600, corresponding to a cycle low timeframe around the end of March. These weekly strong levels provide an expected timeframe for potential swing highs and lows.

Looking at the shorter timeframe (from now until mid-February), I anticipate a dip by the end of January, followed by a bounce through February, potentially reaching my weekly resistance levels as depicted on my chart.

That's all for now. I'll provide updates in this post on any potential setups

Note

The SPX did not experience the expected pullback but instead surged directly to my weekly resistance zone. The current uptrend is robust, making counter-trend positions risky. I only consider opening swing shorts when the risk-reward ratio is favorable, and I have a significant number of confluences supporting my thesis, which might align this week. Ultimately, I am anticipating a swing short in a couple of days, possibly after the FOMC, at 4950-4975 levels with a stop-loss above 5000. My objectives are set at 4900, 4850, and 4800.

Note

I thought the dip wouldn't come, but here it is. Based on my cycle analysis, we still have one more bounce to retest the recent high or even go higher. So, I'm still following my plan to start scaling short at the end of today. My ideal short zone is still 4950-75 but will add if we start seeing weakness after FOMC

Note

Update: I have added some swing shorts at 4900 SPX as we experienced a strong rejection. Price action is quite bearish after the FOMC. So, unless we see a gap up and a break above 4900 SPX tomorrow, the pullback might have started. 4900 SPX is a (LIS) for bulls and also serves as my stop-loss for short positions. A break below 4840 will further confirm the bearish outlook.

Note

Wild moves in the last few days. Bears did not experience a follow-through today, and we gapped up, breaking above 4900 after hours due to Meta and Amazon earnings. These price actions did not surprise me, as I was anticipating the strong bounce early Feb mentioned in my original plan. Now, the bounce has provided a very good opportunity for swing shorts. My ideal short zone remains 4950-75 SPX, with a stop-loss above 5000, all the way to my target at 4500-4600. Of course, I will trim my positions on the way down. The 4500-4600 zone or any dips occurring in late March present a good opportunity for LONG positions again. In the short term, I aim to see 4845 as the first target, ideally happening by next Friday

Note

Just a quick update: I am still holding my short positions. Although the price has passed my resistance zone, I believe the break above 5000 is a fake breakout. So, I have also added shorts at 5000-5050 and moved my stop-loss above 5100. My ideal target remains the 4600 level as per the original plan, but I will consider taking 1/2-2/3 of my positions off at 4800 if we reach it by the end of February. Time is more important than price, and the ideal short timeframe is right now. If we experience a decent pullback, it will present a great opportunity to go long. I will provide details on which sectors and stocks I intend to go long on later when the time is right. For now, I am observing numerous potential setups, but PATIENCE is required.

Note

t looks like I was wrong to think the pullback would start in mid-February from the 4950-5000 area. Indeed, it got squeezed up to 5100. I am still holding my short positions added from 4950 as I believe the pullback is imminent. Since the pullback did not occur after February 16th, I will now be watching for potential pullback timing in early March, specifically from March 1st to March 5th, expecting a 5-10% correction. My first target for March will be 4800-4850 (Daily SMA 50). I will be interested in adding shorts at 5150-5200 if reached before March 1st.

Babyshark_zzz

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