The Failed Soft Landing Scenario
Updated
This is all based on a failed soft landing scenario where we get pushed into a Resection/Depression.
The main difference between #1 & #2 is the WW3 outcome and the failing of banks. In chart #2 the war was fast and non nucellar with banking getting hit but not that badly. In chart #1 the war was long, major and nucellar and the banks crash, the government would want to converting every account to CBDC's to "re work and fix the banking system". In chart #1 it will take 4.8 years to hit bottom (Sep 2023 to Jan 2028) & chart #2 it'll take 1.75 years to hit bottom (Sep 2023 to Jun 2025).
Chart #3
1902 - 1932
Comparing the 1900s chart (#3) and chart #1;
The similarity's in both are insanely accurate from the 30 year time frame to the same amount in price change. The only difference is the amount of time it takes for the bottom to form, if the #1 chart plays out then it would mean it'll take double the time to form a bottom then chart #3 or it plays out faster witch ends it faster. I would bet on a bottom in 2028 with a 4.8 year distance to go threw and end WW3 with a mass liquidation of all banks and the middle class, to be able to change the entire banking system and replace it with CBDC which they would control and monitor (FEDNOW already is online and working).
KBW the Nasdaq banking Index
The end of the triangle is somewhat @ $62 to $75, if this brakes that means major bank liquidations are coming, there's no way around the destruction of banks. With its monthly grinding on the 200MA not looking too promising.
The credit card debt compared to personal savings are dramatically inverted.
Now lets get into a market crash with no war aka chart #2. Taking an almost 2 years to find the bottom and ending in 2025 also finding support at the same line and area from the coved level bottom. Taking 2.2x from the price the market ending somewhat stable and strong which means banks do not die but just fell. Chart #2 & #3 play out similarly in price action other then the distance fallen under the 200MA, chart 2 would be grinding on it or under it. The distance between the first bottom and the last is 8 years and a depression should be at least similar to a past great depression witch would be 30 years or close to it, the formation starts from the beginning to the bottom and touching the formation for one last time.
The main difference between #1 & #2 is the WW3 outcome and the failing of banks. In chart #2 the war was fast and non nucellar with banking getting hit but not that badly. In chart #1 the war was long, major and nucellar and the banks crash, the government would want to converting every account to CBDC's to "re work and fix the banking system". In chart #1 it will take 4.8 years to hit bottom (Sep 2023 to Jan 2028) & chart #2 it'll take 1.75 years to hit bottom (Sep 2023 to Jun 2025).
Chart #3
1902 - 1932
- It took 2.1 years (Apr 1930 - Jun 1932) to top out in its 'Complacency' phase and reach its 'Anger' phase.
- From the touch of the main channel till the ending of the Great Depression it took 30 years
- The top of the market was at $30 and the bottom was -$85% away at $4.4 (-6.8x)
Comparing the 1900s chart (#3) and chart #1;
The similarity's in both are insanely accurate from the 30 year time frame to the same amount in price change. The only difference is the amount of time it takes for the bottom to form, if the #1 chart plays out then it would mean it'll take double the time to form a bottom then chart #3 or it plays out faster witch ends it faster. I would bet on a bottom in 2028 with a 4.8 year distance to go threw and end WW3 with a mass liquidation of all banks and the middle class, to be able to change the entire banking system and replace it with CBDC which they would control and monitor (FEDNOW already is online and working).
KBW the Nasdaq banking Index
The end of the triangle is somewhat @ $62 to $75, if this brakes that means major bank liquidations are coming, there's no way around the destruction of banks. With its monthly grinding on the 200MA not looking too promising.
The credit card debt compared to personal savings are dramatically inverted.
Now lets get into a market crash with no war aka chart #2. Taking an almost 2 years to find the bottom and ending in 2025 also finding support at the same line and area from the coved level bottom. Taking 2.2x from the price the market ending somewhat stable and strong which means banks do not die but just fell. Chart #2 & #3 play out similarly in price action other then the distance fallen under the 200MA, chart 2 would be grinding on it or under it. The distance between the first bottom and the last is 8 years and a depression should be at least similar to a past great depression witch would be 30 years or close to it, the formation starts from the beginning to the bottom and touching the formation for one last time.
Note
the VIX is about to blow
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