Buy using probability
The way probability distribution works is most common the result - higher the result on the bell curve and rare events are on the bottom of curve.
On strong markets, prices rarely ever sit still at pivotal levels like 200dma or high VIX.
Here we also saw higher lows, market only had two directions (crash or bull). If you know how markets work (or the drivers) this was a high probability entry.
Sometimes accumulating VIX points to pressure building up and steam is being taken out from markets?
"Prices are result of Supply-Demand dynamics". I would argue that big players benefit from buying low and defending peaks (as they got nothing to lose). would argue they lose by not buying low.
This is a theoretical idea to give you perspective on strategy?
On strong markets, prices rarely ever sit still at pivotal levels like 200dma or high VIX.
Here we also saw higher lows, market only had two directions (crash or bull). If you know how markets work (or the drivers) this was a high probability entry.
Sometimes accumulating VIX points to pressure building up and steam is being taken out from markets?
"Prices are result of Supply-Demand dynamics". I would argue that big players benefit from buying low and defending peaks (as they got nothing to lose). would argue they lose by not buying low.
This is a theoretical idea to give you perspective on strategy?
Note
bottoming weekly macd too.
Note
best time to buy are on these spots, where price rarely stays for long. hence it's low on probability curve. ie the 1% of the events... One day in 180 trading days etc. (As long as you know the general trends and what drives markets, cycles etc lol).
These spots are most scary - intuition says there's most risk, hence the paradox - it's safer to take risk (as long as there's risk management).
If we look into the base rate - such spots win 95%. You win enough before you lose once.
Note
HL -> with most likelihood. ie market had no elsewhere to go. Lower Low would mean bear market
It makes a lot of difference, when you learn to use this intuitively. High likelihood and rare event.
Note
"On strong markets, prices rarely ever sit still at pivotal levels"
***sorry. On strong markets prices RARELY hit the 200dma and high VIX, hence the rare event. Combined with HL and peaking VIX you get high likelihood.
Note
"HL -> with most likelihood. ie market had no elsewhere to go."
**sorry. Big probability for success or high likelihood rally. People say you can't measure or predict "swings" or waves, you can.
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