EW Projection for Bull Rally: You sure you want to short this?!
Be really careful about placing bets against this monster. The end phase of bull markets are always characterized by explosive panic rallies.
Been rising for 12 years. Fed gonna raise rates >1% next year, probably gonna get a 50 basis pip pop in spring or summer, inflation unchecked. Read Friday's NY Times for a very insightful article on when, why and how much interest rates will rise; projecting mortgage rates to rise >1% in 2022.
Most traders now alive have never seen a secular bear market. That's a period when prices just decline for years, or churn aimlessly, no one wins.
Bear markets that last for 3-6 weeks are not real bears, lol. They are mini-bears, bear cubs or just a mild hangover before the buying begins again.
In a real bear, the buying does NOT begin again. Prices decline, and then drift further down; and do not bounce. This is not here YET, but SOON IMO.
BUT, before the Bear, we should expect a last hurrah for the old Bull, and shorting it will be a widowmaker. Do not get killed, please!!
So much for the lecture, here's the Education part of this idea it's about using all the tools you can to make educated guesses about price direction; we have Elliott waves, RSI, MAs, and Fibonacci retracement and projection extensions as possibly useful analysis tools, any and all of which can and will fail us:
Elliot wave theory suggests that we have a completed or near completion 3rd wave, the longest and strongest wave of an impulsive movement.
Beware! EW projection is an arcane art and no one can really 'see' these waves until after they have passed... you do NOT know where you are in the wave when you're in it! Forecasting of EWs is purely speculative guesswork, and totally subjective; "Where do I number my waves, guru?!"
Disclaimer: As you know, Ralph Nelson Elliott was an accountant and math genius whose insight into market behavior led to his uncanny prediction of the bottom of 1935 mini-bear that followed the Crash of '29 (a bear that lasted until 1932...!). His theory is only a theory, and many forecasting services exist pretending to anticipate what the market will do next, but in fact underperform index funds. Still fascinating though!
RSI is overbought, but can get MORE overbought (see prior posts about why we do not enter shorts purely based on indicators!); expect some consolidation and price weakness before moving higher; the Fibonacci 1.272 extension of this rally leads to price 4614, after pullback to a higher low.
Market trades now more than 3SD above the 200 DMA, more than 2SD above the 50DMA; a pullback is very likely in these conditions. the 20DMA may be support.
Disclaimer: As you know, Fibonacci is a dead Italian math genius, these projections based on nothing more than number theory are pure necromancy but sometimes can be coincidentally correct, like a stopped clock that's right twice a day, lol.
IMO 4682 is on the table at the next Fib extension. Expect weakness in the last week of October; and new ATH again in November, barring surprises.
A sharp pullback is likely to follow the ATH, if and when we get it. So uncertain now, just a mad gamble TBVH.
NB: A zig-zag pattern is still possible, some of the fiercest rallies precede the most bearish cascades; or a Cup & Handle may form, if so, the Handle typically will pullback half the height of cup wall, would be ~80-100 pips, so price around 4460-4480 is a likely a buy zone to re-enter. ANY or NONE of these possibilities might emerge, which makes stock speculation so wildly exciting! Be cautious, do not overtrade, use sensible position sizing!
I am not entering a position or making any recommendation to take any position here. Pure WAGuess IMO; this is purely for your amusement, and hopefully enlightenment. GLTA!
Been rising for 12 years. Fed gonna raise rates >1% next year, probably gonna get a 50 basis pip pop in spring or summer, inflation unchecked. Read Friday's NY Times for a very insightful article on when, why and how much interest rates will rise; projecting mortgage rates to rise >1% in 2022.
Most traders now alive have never seen a secular bear market. That's a period when prices just decline for years, or churn aimlessly, no one wins.
Bear markets that last for 3-6 weeks are not real bears, lol. They are mini-bears, bear cubs or just a mild hangover before the buying begins again.
In a real bear, the buying does NOT begin again. Prices decline, and then drift further down; and do not bounce. This is not here YET, but SOON IMO.
BUT, before the Bear, we should expect a last hurrah for the old Bull, and shorting it will be a widowmaker. Do not get killed, please!!
So much for the lecture, here's the Education part of this idea it's about using all the tools you can to make educated guesses about price direction; we have Elliott waves, RSI, MAs, and Fibonacci retracement and projection extensions as possibly useful analysis tools, any and all of which can and will fail us:
Elliot wave theory suggests that we have a completed or near completion 3rd wave, the longest and strongest wave of an impulsive movement.
Beware! EW projection is an arcane art and no one can really 'see' these waves until after they have passed... you do NOT know where you are in the wave when you're in it! Forecasting of EWs is purely speculative guesswork, and totally subjective; "Where do I number my waves, guru?!"
Disclaimer: As you know, Ralph Nelson Elliott was an accountant and math genius whose insight into market behavior led to his uncanny prediction of the bottom of 1935 mini-bear that followed the Crash of '29 (a bear that lasted until 1932...!). His theory is only a theory, and many forecasting services exist pretending to anticipate what the market will do next, but in fact underperform index funds. Still fascinating though!
RSI is overbought, but can get MORE overbought (see prior posts about why we do not enter shorts purely based on indicators!); expect some consolidation and price weakness before moving higher; the Fibonacci 1.272 extension of this rally leads to price 4614, after pullback to a higher low.
Market trades now more than 3SD above the 200 DMA, more than 2SD above the 50DMA; a pullback is very likely in these conditions. the 20DMA may be support.
Disclaimer: As you know, Fibonacci is a dead Italian math genius, these projections based on nothing more than number theory are pure necromancy but sometimes can be coincidentally correct, like a stopped clock that's right twice a day, lol.
IMO 4682 is on the table at the next Fib extension. Expect weakness in the last week of October; and new ATH again in November, barring surprises.
A sharp pullback is likely to follow the ATH, if and when we get it. So uncertain now, just a mad gamble TBVH.
NB: A zig-zag pattern is still possible, some of the fiercest rallies precede the most bearish cascades; or a Cup & Handle may form, if so, the Handle typically will pullback half the height of cup wall, would be ~80-100 pips, so price around 4460-4480 is a likely a buy zone to re-enter. ANY or NONE of these possibilities might emerge, which makes stock speculation so wildly exciting! Be cautious, do not overtrade, use sensible position sizing!
I am not entering a position or making any recommendation to take any position here. Pure WAGuess IMO; this is purely for your amusement, and hopefully enlightenment. GLTA!
Trade active
Entered a straddle in weekly QQQ 378s, expect fluctuation on ERs IMONote
LOL l@K @FB... closed my long side of straddle ITMTrade active
Been very busy all day, buying and selling calls, selling and buying puts. Up ~60% on most trades, buying 80-90c contracts and flipping for $1.10-1.30; traded up and down a dozen times. So choppy u can take almost any position in tomorrow's dailies and flip them for more after a short pause... back in cash now, it has been bulled to ATH, might bull there again, who knows?Trade active
Looks like pullback coming soon, See if they can pump it back up overnight. Lotta selling pressure EOD!Note
Looks like we may have rejection from the 4600 round number. Let's see...Note
Typically a topping formation will form three peaks in a crown, two are apparent; judging by the weakness in RUT, will likely bounce and then head lower, perhaps test the 20 DMA?Would be a nice sell and another BTFD oppy IMO
Note
Tried fade the gap, didn't get much, shorted mid-morning, got a little out, shorting again PM, see if it gives another pushback EODNote
Just amazing how the MOMO keep prices up in face of lousy news, probly won't break until Fed hikes IMONote
Price appears to relax in a stepwise manner. Two steps down from HOTD atm, expect another; could sell EOD as it did Weds. Fluctuates wildly at ATH.Note
Fascinating NB: On 10/27 I watched 0.25c puts jump to $2.25 EOD, 11 times ur money in half an hour. I think it obvious that SELLING these crappy little penny contracts is EXTREMELY RISKY and DO NOT ADVISE IT!
There are some contributors on TV that short dailies on M,W,F for .15-.25c. Very bad idea IMO! You can get so Killed, easily lose ten times what you collect.
FYI ETrade no longer allows retail customers to short dailies on date of expiration, even in creit spreads; "Extremely high assignment risk requires more money than you have in this account" LOL, it's treated as a naked trade, for good reason.
Trade active
Played for a pullback EOD and got a little but no massive selloff (yet) like Weds PM, makes me think we got higher prices ahead... shorting probly not gonna be profitable IMO, looks like they buy it up off Weds PM sale.Ponzi Friday coming...!
Note
Yeah totally different mood today, bullish enthusiasm, no fear, buying everything. This post was intended to prevent speculative losses from shorts, hopefully someone read it...!
Note
Yeah we got a double miss, gonna be a Red Friday IMO...!Might be topped here?!
Trade active
O FGS... worst ERs ever and they buy AAPL up from gap, QQQ puts went ITM briefly, I closed shorts and rolled long, now they buy again... it's a damned meltup, no regard for news (inflation rising, jobs falling), ERs (worst reports in six years from the megacaps), pure insanity.Again, this post designed to SAVE YOUR MONEY from short losses, hope you stayed in cash my friends!
Probly gonna take the rest of day off, so choppy, whipsaw, nothing to be gained IMO.
Note
JN Crowning in QQQ on gapfill, might head lower IMONote
Explosive EOD rally from all those poar fools that shorted in AM, forced to cover. Most of the move in NQ.NB: Relative weakness in RUT, transports and SPX RSI
Trade closed: target reached
Traded over the Fibo and rejected 11/01. Strength in RUT, this is the last index to move to ATH, now the whole market is in nosebleed zone, might be close to throwover, confirm on Tues/Weds.
Position sizing! Don't get buried... no more longs here, get in cash if you don't like shorts.
Note
Another nutty runup to HOTD on 11/01 at EOD. Frantic!Note
Amazing, price stopped precisely on the Fibo, 4614 EOD 11/01...!Note
Back to 4626... is this the top? Stay tuned...Note
Double topped, looks like a rejection Friday 11/19 from ATH 4718... confirm in this weekly candle IMO.Caution: trading over holiday weeks is light and price can drift higher on low volume
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