Long

S&P 500 INDEX to 6000 before mid 2023

Updated

Firstly a big thank you for taking me past the 10k likes on Tradingview. That’s a great milestone and tells me the ideas must be appreciated. If it is okay with you I’ll continue to share them freely.

As a thank you for taking my ideas past this milestone I want to share the idea that will challenge 95% of those reading. You will just not believe what is about to happen in the following 6-9 months. Use this idea as a cheat code to take you to the 5% club.

It is highly probable the market will rip higher and I’m betting on a new all time high before the middle of next year in the area of 6000. Then we can have our recession.

Still reading? Or have you gone straight to the comments for some club 95% ‘you mad bro’ comments?

What’s the evidence? There’s technical and fundamental. Firstly the technical on the above weekly chart:

1) A ‘great buy’ signal has printed. Look left.

2) Every year that ends with a ‘2’ for the last 70 years has beautiful symmetry with its roots in pi-cycle theory, but I’ll not go into that here, just accept it.

Each of the annual charts below are the last 70 years with years ending in a ‘2’ with the vertical lines approximately identifying a 12 month window.

1952 -

1962 -

1972 -

1982 -

1992 -

2002 -

2012 -

And finally 2022 - see a pattern?

The Fundamentals

1) Mid-term elections - the FED will not crash the market with up and coming mid-term elections. They never have in the above years.

2) Insider trading - The people making the decisions / your glorious leaders, they are actually buying the dip:

“U.S. House speaker Pelosi discloses trades in Apple and Microsoft”

Source: reuters.com/markets/us/us-house-speaker-pelosi-discloses-trades-apple-microsoft-2022-06-06/

This is not an isolated event.

3) Sentiment is at the lowest it has been for 40 years! Not even 2008 comes close. People are so bearish right now that it is actually bullish.

4) The Put / Call ratio. The number of retail traders ‘short’ on the market is at levels not seen since August 2020. Remember then? The world was ending then too.

5) The ‘Put/Call’ ratio is printing bearish divergence just as it was back in August 2020. The market ripped higher afterwards.

Well that’s it - Hope you enjoyed, this took some hours of study and preparation.

Ww

Type: trade
Risk: <=6% of portfolio
Timeframe: 6 to 9 months
Return: 50-80%

Note

Enjoying all the pushback below, honestly, keep it coming.

I just have to share this statistic, I’m having a brain orgasm. Looking through various SPX 500 ideas on Tradingview posted since the month began.

The most highly liked bearish example on June 16th:

June 10th ‘SPX The Worst May Be Yet To Come”
1185 likes

The most highly liked bullish example: My own
June 14th ’S&P 500 INDEX to 6000 before mid 2023’
64 likes

(1-(64/1185))*100 = 95%

95% of the community liked the bearish outlook!!! What a riot.

Club 95% you are my guiding light in times of darkness.

Note

This is worth sharing.. Everyone is talking about rising unemployment. Truth be told, it is not rising at all. In fact, unemployment is at historic lows in the US as is elsewhere.

Nonetheless, unemployment must rise there’s no escape. These levels are of historic importance with unemployment just a shade over 3%.. When the yield curve inversion confirms 4 to 6 months from now, we’re going to see mass lay offs.

Unfortunately depending what side of the fence you’re on, this is excellent news for the stock market. When unemployment begins to rotate from historic lows we’re going to see a massive rally in the stock market. Just as before as is shown on the 6-week chart below. At this time the FED will have no option whatsoever, you cannot tighten into an environment with rising unemployment and a rapid rising of interest rates. It would be chaos. This downturn will be devastating for so many and enriching for others. Unfortunately it is the ‘others’ that are selling, consolidating their losses. History repeating.

Orange line: S&P 500
Blue line: Unemployment

Trade active

7 oscillators now printing positive divergence with price action on the 2-day chart. Not seen that since December 2018. Look left.

Latterly Put options is printing bearish divergence, more than few fingers are getting burnt.

Trade active

Put contracts are feeling the pain today. Surprised their number remains so high. Should be an entertaining few weeks ahead.

Note

** price acton resistance break out **

This is no time to be long on Put options. Look what is happening...

1) RSI resistance breakout
2) Price action resistance breakout
3) Inverse head and shoulders will confirm tomorrow if price action fails to close below 3820.

Take care..

Trade active

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Almost 12% since publishing. 4320 will be a sticking point for resistance. After that the real run will begin.

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Approaching the sticking point at rapid pace with gaps in trail. The number of retail traders opening Short positions into upward momentum is insane. Club 95% in full swing, earn that money watch it burn.

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Rapidly approaching the 4320-30 sticking point (the yellow dotted line) as shown on 2-day chart below.

Should we expect a strong sell off from here? No. Expecting consolidation and then the next leg up. Why? All to do with the 2-week chart below.

Two things I want you to see:

1) The red circles. Following a significant sell off AND (important) Stochastic RSI crosses up 20 (as it just did hence the red circle). DO NOT IGNORE. The market is about make significant upward move that will catch a lot of people off guard.

2) The back arrows under price action. Specifically the green candle, these are Heikin Ashi candles. Now I’m not going into detail here but for those of you in the know you’ll understand those candles measure trends. Two important things to read about them, does the candle have a flat bottom? Yes. Is it green? yes. On the 2- week chart together with point (1), this is dynamite to price action. Look left.

Note

Price action resistance (where the most confluence exists) appears to have been broken.

Remember, on publication, years ending with a '2' saw a post summer rally through until mid-late September until mid-October. I don't expect this rally to be any different.

I know lots of folks are expecting a strong correction to base, lots of Youtubers talking about it. You know, when everyone is singing from the same sheet...

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Price action strikes the sticking point exactly at 4320-4330. Now everyone will likely be expecting the mother of all sell offs to end this bear market rally.

But that's not going to happen. Far from it. How do I know? Read the first post ;-)

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The sticking point at 4320 to 4330 was confirmed. The next number that matters the most....

4150

Set your limit orders on that level from which a strong bounce will occur IF a sell off is seen. Don't chase, let the sellers fill your pockets.

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Rapidly approaching 4150. Ignore the fear buy the dip and watch it rip.

A buy from anything <4150 is awesome.

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For every time the 21-SMA crossed up the 50-SMA on the 2-day chart (below - red circles) following a 'great buy' signal over the last 30 years - guess what? Market was in an uptrend for months if not years. Not my opinion, just a fact of the chart.

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Excellent moment to add to long position as price action lands on the golden pocket

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Perfect bounce off the golden pocket as another 'incredible buy' signal prints on the 6hr chart. The market is flushing out the emotional hands with remarkable efficiency.

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Get your bull on.

** 4-day Dragonfly DOJI - do not ignore **

Want you to see something… for this we’re going to take a trip back to 1998, 1-year before the dot com bubble peaked.

On the 4-day chart below:

1) Price action rallies 430% for 10 years following the crash of 87.

2) Price action corrected 22-23%. Everyone loses the plot. This is the start of the bear market. Recession is here.

>> side note:

Here is the minutes from the FOMC meeting at the time:

“Release Date: September 29, 1998

For immediate release
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to ease the stance of monetary policy slightly, expecting the federal funds rate to decline 1/4 percentage point to around 5-1/4 percent.
The action was taken to cushion the effects on prospective economic growth in the United States of increasing weakness in foreign economies and of less accommodative financial conditions domestically. The recent changes in the global economy and adjustments in U.S. financial markets mean that a slightly lower federal funds rate should now be consistent with keeping inflation low and sustaining economic growth going forward.

The discount rate remains unchanged at 5 percent.”

Apparently the inflation rate in 1998 was 1.56%. Good times.

Source: federalreserve.gov/boarddocs...

Back then a 5.25% FED rate was required to keep inflation in check @ 1.56%.

Fast forward to today we have 2.5% FED funds rate to tame 8.5% annual inflation. If they same FED in 1998 were in charge today we’d have rates at 28%!

<< end of side note

1998

Now to present day:

Same 4-day chart. Same hawkish FED. The month of September no less.

1) Market rallies 550% in the last 10-12 years if you managed to catch the exact 2009 bottom.

2) The market rally from 87 to 2000 did not have a 40% increase M2 money supply.

3) We have a 22-23% correction. Everyone is losing the plot. Recession is coming (yes I agree just not yet).

4) We have a strong Dragonfly DOJI candle that has just printed.

If we see a market melt up as in 1999 with the same 60% move, the S&P 500 will hit the 6000 target.

Ww

2022

Trade active

** Double bottom **

Spot the difference. “This time it’s different” they scream.

1962

Today

The most hilarious part of all of this.. is the smart money / hedge funds. They are massively ‘short’

From Jason Goepfert of SentimenTrader

“Last week, traders of fifty or more contract bought to open nearly five million put options. More importantly, they spent a whopping $8.1 billion on those contracts. That is almost double the amount of any other week in 22 years”

Never in 40 years has there be this much betting for a massive stock market crash. The so called smart money.

Trade active

The index has just printed a most bullish signal not seen since February 2016, do you know what it is?

Note

bullish signal confirmed

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If that daily candle closes like it is now, you throw the farm at it. Complete with the cattle.

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4-day chart below.

This melt up is going to melt the face off so many bears. The index has not printed this amount of significant bullish divergence since 1982. Just think about that for a moment…

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For the bulls, you want to see price action close above 4100.

For the bears, you absolutely do not want to see candles close above resistance.

Trade active

At market structure, time to go long again. Simples..

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buy signal confirms

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Once again the 'buy' signal was spot on.

4030. The only number worth watching now. IF this week a candle body closes on or above 4030... this will represent a break of significant resistance.

Trade active

Close the shorts open the longs. These swings are fantastic.

Note

Have had a few messages asking if this idea is now cancelled.

Far from it.

On the 2-week chart below the bull flag that began this idea way back in June 2022 is not only intact but now price action has broken out. Ideally looking for a test of 3780 before getting underway.

This stagnant market has done an excellent job of flushing out fearful 😨 traders / investors. Ironically they’ll likely pile in again when this flag tops out at target, but hey, winning is not for everyone.

Be patient, ignore the news, read a good book.
Ww

2-week chart

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4050, if this resistance is broken.. be long.

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Long from 3920 should sellers give you the chance.

Trade active

GRM support confirmed.

By no means a mind reader of the market, just a chart analysis. Absolutely no idea what will happen next. I’m told smart money is exiting the market with every bear market rally. “This recession will destroy anyone who is long” was one message I recently received ;)

The facts…

1) Higher highs / higher lows have replaced lower highs / lower lows. How on earth is no one acknowledging this? The trend has reversed.

2) GRM support. In other words, buyers are entering the market each and every time price action prints on the golden ratio. This is what happens in a bull market.

These facts are irrefutable. Be the 10%, ignore the bears.

Ww

3-day chart

Trade active

This idea has never been more alive.

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Imagine you read the original chart with a ‘Do not ignore’ call from 3740. You’re up almost 20% Feels good doesn’t it?

Imagine you instead heeded the endless comments from the bears below falling over each for attention advertising lower lows. How annoying would that feel?

This is what a market melt up looks like. The market was heavily ‘short’. Now those ‘short’ positions are feeding the moves in price action.

The market melt up will soon spill over to the Crypto market. How I do I know? Study, lots and lots of study.

1600 points to go until target.

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1550 points to go...

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Almost up 1000 points since the first post. 'Do not ignore' it said. The majority of folks leaving comments below did exactly that. Fascinating isn't it?

Nothing has changed for the target.

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Only 1400 points to go...

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October 2022 was the last time this signal printed. Don't ignore those opportunities. Yes the market is fearful, strong bearish sentiments just as when the last signal printed. That is the expectation.

Continue to expect volatility and melt up rather than new bull market and growth.

1-day

Note

Have been asked if this idea is void.

No. It is as bullish as the day it was published at 3750. How good does that entry sound now?

On the monthly chart below a pattern that repeats itself every 20 years is shown. Don’t take my word for, look left.

This formation is called “Hidden bullish divergence”, it has already confirmed.

monthly

Note

More are going long than short as price action finds GRM support. Make of that what you will.

5hr

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July 2023 high tested.

Look at the orange circles, notice momentum is increasing rather than overbought as was the last time price action was at this level?

Many folks remain short. However the chart is telling us momentum is gathering.

Daily

Note

We saw an increase in Short sellers open Put contracts into resistance since last update. Some will liquidate others increase margin. Either way both are about to learn a hard lesson. ... Never go Short into momentum.

Trade active

In the comments below the bears have called the last 10 of 2 recessions. Meanwhile the index prints an all time new high. If the market prints this candle in the next 50 minutes, we're in for a wild 2024.

2-week

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Only 1100 points to go.
Did not seem possible at 3500 as the massive were calling for 40-70% corrections.

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990 points to go!

Imagine reading this idea for the first time "Do not ignore" at 3750.

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940 points to go!

youtube.com/watch?v=hxOll8DIAb8&t

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Now only 750 points to go!

And then the 6000 target is reached.

But will it stop there or continue to 8000?!!
That'll make going short at 3750 feel ouchy.

Trade active

Everyone is bearish. So cute.

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380 pts to go ;-)

No sell signal yet.

Trade active

The final leg up begins.

without_worries

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Allow 3-6 months on ideas. Not investment advice. DYOR

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