That's a SCAR on a BEAR'S FACE!
So, the bulls are fighting hard this time! Since Apr 20 SPX is moving sideways it could be an accumulation or distribution, we don’t know for sure yet, so let’s try to find out! But first remember to follow me if you are new here, I post daily analyses and you are welcome to join our community! Also, follow me on TWITTER, because there I post things I can’t post here, and I’m sure you’ll find something interesting. Just check it for yourself!
Now, back to SPX, it did a double top under the 61.8% fib retracement, a strong bearish sign, but now it frustrates the bears by triggering this Piercing Line today, just when it hit the “support zone”, and closed above the 21 ema. And I’ll not start talking about the bear traps it did recently, which fortunately we avoided (links below). Now, let’s see the hourly chart as usual, there’re some interesting clues there:
As I said in my last analysis, I was expecting SPX would find the 21 ema a resistance, and it did, but so briefly that the bears didn’t stand a chance. Now I’ll tell you my honest opinion, if the price does a very nice bearish pattern close to the purple trendline, then I’ll believe the bears are here. You guys already know that I wouldn’t short SPX in this scenario, I’ll buy VIX instead, but this would be the confirmation I need.
But, until then, it’s still a bull trend. Yes, it lost its strength when it lost the purple trendline, but the chart is still pointing up, and today’s candle confirms this. Now, let’s see the weekly chart:
Now, there’re reasons for the bears show up here! This week’s candle can be a Harami under a fib retracement, but this long shadow is something to notice. The bears tried to push the bulls down, but they managed to push them all the way back. This shadow in this week’s candle is the scar of a lost battle, a scar on a bear’s face. If the price lost this shadow next week, we can think about SPX hitting the 38.2% fib retracement. But, until then, the bulls are winning this war.
Remember to follow me, I’m a trader who uses the classic technical analysis (barely any indicator, just the candles and the volume). Like this idea if it helped.
Thank you very much.
* LIKE this idea and FOLLOW me, because:
- Here, you will see clean charts;
- Trades with clear risk management;
- The best of Dow Theory, Price Action and Candlestick psychology;
- Chart patterns with statistics. *
* My name is Nathan, I'm a trader and portfolio manager and I'm here to LEARN. Leave your COMMENT and FOLLOW me to keep in touch. *
Now, back to SPX, it did a double top under the 61.8% fib retracement, a strong bearish sign, but now it frustrates the bears by triggering this Piercing Line today, just when it hit the “support zone”, and closed above the 21 ema. And I’ll not start talking about the bear traps it did recently, which fortunately we avoided (links below). Now, let’s see the hourly chart as usual, there’re some interesting clues there:
As I said in my last analysis, I was expecting SPX would find the 21 ema a resistance, and it did, but so briefly that the bears didn’t stand a chance. Now I’ll tell you my honest opinion, if the price does a very nice bearish pattern close to the purple trendline, then I’ll believe the bears are here. You guys already know that I wouldn’t short SPX in this scenario, I’ll buy VIX instead, but this would be the confirmation I need.
But, until then, it’s still a bull trend. Yes, it lost its strength when it lost the purple trendline, but the chart is still pointing up, and today’s candle confirms this. Now, let’s see the weekly chart:
Now, there’re reasons for the bears show up here! This week’s candle can be a Harami under a fib retracement, but this long shadow is something to notice. The bears tried to push the bulls down, but they managed to push them all the way back. This shadow in this week’s candle is the scar of a lost battle, a scar on a bear’s face. If the price lost this shadow next week, we can think about SPX hitting the 38.2% fib retracement. But, until then, the bulls are winning this war.
Remember to follow me, I’m a trader who uses the classic technical analysis (barely any indicator, just the candles and the volume). Like this idea if it helped.
Thank you very much.
* LIKE this idea and FOLLOW me, because:
- Here, you will see clean charts;
- Trades with clear risk management;
- The best of Dow Theory, Price Action and Candlestick psychology;
- Chart patterns with statistics. *
* My name is Nathan, I'm a trader and portfolio manager and I'm here to LEARN. Leave your COMMENT and FOLLOW me to keep in touch. *
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