Stocks have recently experienced selloffs reminiscent of the subprime crash and Covid. However, there might be something different this time.
This monthly chart of the S&P 500 highlights the three moments in history. The Global Financial Crisis is marked in white. The coronavirus pandemic is in teal and the tariff selloff is colored yellow.
Simple price action on the stock index is mostly comparable, with large solid red candles revisiting levels from months (or years) prior.
Two other charts, however, paint a different picture. They represent risk-off “safe havens” that typically move a certain way versus the “risk-on” S&P 500. The U.S. dollar index typically climbs during sharp downturns in the stock market and the 10-year Treasury yield usually falls as bond prices rise.
The current period, however, has seen the U.S. dollar bleed lower. This is especially puzzling because higher tariffs should reduce imports, which in turn should reduce selling of the greenback.
The 10-year Treasury yield has also made a small move relative to the stock market’s dramatic volatility. TNX broke to multiyear lows during the last two crashes, but this time it’s holding levels from October.
Aside from the apparent anomaly, there could be a few takeaways from this price action.
First, GFC and covid happened during a major secular bull market in Treasuries. But since the pandemic, yields have shown signs of a longer-term upside reversal. If that new trend continues, it may weigh on stock sentiment well into the future.
Second, weakness in the greenback has corresponded to weakness in U.S. stocks. That may reflect capital outflows away from the U.S. as a general market.
Third, the labor market has been resilient. A continuation of that strength could prevent the Fed from cutting interest rates. In other words, it could be the opposite of Goldilocks: an economy that’s too cold to drive profit growth but too warm to justify rate cuts.
Given this potentially challenging mix of factors, investors may ask whether a new secular bear market has begun.
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TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit https://www.TradeStation.com/DisclosureTSCompanies for further important information explaining what this means.
This monthly chart of the S&P 500 highlights the three moments in history. The Global Financial Crisis is marked in white. The coronavirus pandemic is in teal and the tariff selloff is colored yellow.
Simple price action on the stock index is mostly comparable, with large solid red candles revisiting levels from months (or years) prior.
Two other charts, however, paint a different picture. They represent risk-off “safe havens” that typically move a certain way versus the “risk-on” S&P 500. The U.S. dollar index typically climbs during sharp downturns in the stock market and the 10-year Treasury yield usually falls as bond prices rise.
The current period, however, has seen the U.S. dollar bleed lower. This is especially puzzling because higher tariffs should reduce imports, which in turn should reduce selling of the greenback.
The 10-year Treasury yield has also made a small move relative to the stock market’s dramatic volatility. TNX broke to multiyear lows during the last two crashes, but this time it’s holding levels from October.
Aside from the apparent anomaly, there could be a few takeaways from this price action.
First, GFC and covid happened during a major secular bull market in Treasuries. But since the pandemic, yields have shown signs of a longer-term upside reversal. If that new trend continues, it may weigh on stock sentiment well into the future.
Second, weakness in the greenback has corresponded to weakness in U.S. stocks. That may reflect capital outflows away from the U.S. as a general market.
Third, the labor market has been resilient. A continuation of that strength could prevent the Fed from cutting interest rates. In other words, it could be the opposite of Goldilocks: an economy that’s too cold to drive profit growth but too warm to justify rate cuts.
Given this potentially challenging mix of factors, investors may ask whether a new secular bear market has begun.
TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more.
Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at https://www.TradeStation.com/DisclosureOptions. Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on https://www.TradeStation.com/Important-Information/. System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges.
TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit https://www.TradeStation.com/DisclosureTSCompanies for further important information explaining what this means.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.