Technical Breakdown: We’re at a critical junction for the S&P 500. After completing a 5-wave structure, 
SPX is teetering near a decision point. Two potential paths are now unfolding:
Bullish Scenario (🟢):
A daily close above 5386 would invalidate the current bear thesis.
This opens the door to a push toward the 90–100% Fib retracement zone (5685–5750).
Short-term traders may look to ride the momentum if 5485 is broken cleanly.
Bearish Scenario (🔴):
A rejection at current levels, coupled with a close below 5386 and a gap-fill back down, confirms the bearish triangle setup.
If this plays out, we’re targeting a drop to the 4600–4400 range based on the 1.618 and 2.618 Fibonacci extensions and broken trendline dynamics.
This aligns with the Elliott Wave breakdown (W5 peak, now in corrective ABC structure).
🧩 Macro Context:
High inflows to safe havens like gold suggest rising fear.
Volatility is elevated, and liquidity is thinning post-earnings season.
💥 Conclusion: Tomorrow’s close is not just another candle – it’s a potential macro trigger. Either we confirm a final leg higher in this cycle, or the bearish wave unfolds in full.
⏳ Watch 5386 closely.
SPX is teetering near a decision point. Two potential paths are now unfolding:Bullish Scenario (🟢):
A daily close above 5386 would invalidate the current bear thesis.
This opens the door to a push toward the 90–100% Fib retracement zone (5685–5750).
Short-term traders may look to ride the momentum if 5485 is broken cleanly.
Bearish Scenario (🔴):
A rejection at current levels, coupled with a close below 5386 and a gap-fill back down, confirms the bearish triangle setup.
If this plays out, we’re targeting a drop to the 4600–4400 range based on the 1.618 and 2.618 Fibonacci extensions and broken trendline dynamics.
This aligns with the Elliott Wave breakdown (W5 peak, now in corrective ABC structure).
🧩 Macro Context:
High inflows to safe havens like gold suggest rising fear.
Volatility is elevated, and liquidity is thinning post-earnings season.
💥 Conclusion: Tomorrow’s close is not just another candle – it’s a potential macro trigger. Either we confirm a final leg higher in this cycle, or the bearish wave unfolds in full.
⏳ Watch 5386 closely.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.