Short

SPX fun times

Updated

I see a bat harmonic pattern on SPX. Going by that, shit is about to get very real! We could be saying in hindsight that today was the Black Friday of a major crisis.

DYOR and trade at own risk.

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Looks pretty much on. Next support is likely the 100MA weekly.

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100MA weekly got broken too, so we are in for a dash now. Next probable support is 200MA daily.

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100MA Weekly at it again! We got support from 200MA daily, and had a re-test of 100MA (weekly), which failed. Pretty much confirming the downtrend.

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We re-tested 200MA daily and were successful! 100 MA weekly to test a second time. SPX is consolidating in this range with a ping pong between 100 MA weekly as resistance and 200 MA daily as support.

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SPX broke 100MA weekly resistance and got rejected by the downward trending line. The rejection was pretty solid, and we have a bearish shooting star candle on daily as well, so look to retest 100MA weekly as support today. The bias is still confidently bearish.

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Deep fall for the day. 100MA Weekly gave in, so next support is 200MA daily.

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Wow what a night! 200 MA gave in without any resistance. $3860 is next support, if it holds, otherwise it's a free fall from there on. The ride is going to get pretty rough from here I think!

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History tells us that an overshoot is mostly followed by a dump. Here we are.

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Well well well, this has aged like the perfect french cheese! So ladies and gentlemen, we are fast approaching Bat Target 1. Very likely that we hit target tonight.

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Who the party pooper, JPow! Looks like we may be getting a few days rebound. We did get rejected from 200 dailyMA last night. If we can beat that resistance, only then I see a rebound happening. Even then there will be a few resistances to fight...our ol' freind 100 weekly MA and then the downtrend line around 40500.

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No man's land at the moment. 200 daily MA resistance broken with ease. Next up is 100 weekly MA. If this gets broken tonight, next week will be very interesting. My expectation is that we will flip flop around the 100 weekly and 200 daily MAs until 22nd Mar. The delta of interest rate rise will define the path forward. I am sitting on the sidelines and watching until then. Or until I see bond buying increasing again, whichever comes first :) The sentiment is very bearish still.

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Interesting development so far...we have managed to get support from 200day MA three times since 21-Mar! Day before yesterday we got rejected by the down trend line and yesterday saw support from 100week MA. Fore me, these three lines pretty much set the tone for SPX (the down trend line, the 100week MA and 200day MA). Losing support from 200day MA means we are headed for a steep fall. Breaking the down trend line (close above) means, we are looking for a dead cat bounce (bullish run, whatever you call it) to 4200. In between is just fun and games! I think by end of week, something will have to give, so we enter April with some clarity (loss of 200day MA support is what I am looking up to).

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Hahh so we broke through the trend line. But what a shitty break seriously! A gap up on such low volume gives me all sorts of dead-cat-bounce-with-no-run-to-4200 feeling. Let's see until end of week... I've got a bad feeling of this (good feeling of dropping down soon).

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Okay, so bond buying got a pivot yesterday, and (I can't believe I am saying this) is looking to rise. 4200 looks imminent.

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We got support last week, and I think this week will see 4200 gap being filled. Fundamentals support bulls this week, unless Fed spoils the fun on 3rd.

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Interesting development...so what Fed said is already incorporated in markets. What markets are uncertain about, Fed provided no real guidance. Bound buying got a pivot (again!), so I think we might still be looking at 4200 gap being filled (not this week though). Actually, I think we might see first the hourly gap at 403 area being filled tomorrow, and then a rebound to fill 4200 next week (potentially).

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We are nearly at the gap! What a wild market. I'm still divided that we fill the gap, but it's likely we will. I see a very grim next week. Treasury futures have lost support from a key level that kept May from sell out, and are very near the level that pretty much defined the Feb sell off. Looks to me that the market is getting it's last day (or two) of squeeze before dumping.

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So we did fill the gap (almost completely - I mean, why leave that little bit there is funny). I think we have already started the sell off. Bond buying has fallen to critical level and looks ripe for a very bearish momentum. Debt ceiling issue is on the table too and could literally rip the markets to floor. Fun times, I say!

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Well well well! We have now already crossed the critical level of bond buying, where equity markets start to feel major sell off, so let's get back to our Bat pattern levels. They have been revised slightly due to the short squeeze in the last 2 months.

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Looking at Target1 at 3935 and Target2 at 3820. Target 2 levels has multiple confluences around it, and has been a strong historic support level, so we could potentially bottom at that point.

Order cancelled

This is obviously bonkers now. Market is as irrational as it could be.

I'll just leave this here that was in today's news: "Retail investors were net buyers of stocks for the first time in 11 weeks last week and hedge funds also posted inflows, while institutional clients were net sellers for the first time in four weeks, according to Bank of America’s latest client survey." If this is not a sign of market going for a downturn I don't know what else is. Instos lead, everyone else follows.

ositrades

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