SPX/SP500/SPY bull or bear?
Updated
Wide look - 1994 - 2022 massive broadenings that can range 35-50% drawdowns. A widening in price indicating volatility triggered by macro and micro events. This year's high to low 25% or 1182 points on the SP500.
On the daily inside this 8 month broadening pattern - while we've seen rally's and flushes, all it did was build up this pattern.
Zero volume analysis here of which move was real which wasn't, just look at this 30 year fib channel and how price moved by forming massive consolidations and reactions on each tier.
Daily -
Tight spot leading into this week. For the bulls - a breakout of this formation with a pullback retest could indicate a sentiment change.
While strong rally into resistance there is also a potential bearish butterfly harmonic at play for the bears. A rejection at resistance would be validating towards the harmonic. No confirmation of a reversal point yet simply because we need more candles to see and nothing is certain until a candle closes.
If butterfly valid - retrace to a 0.5 (3982) is first thing to look for. Could bounce could see continuation lower and ultimately the 1.618 (3216) measured move assuming it retraces through 1.0 (3639)
If breakout, retest and hold - would be looking at some weekly supply reactions starting at 4541 and then above areas towards previous ATH.
Watch it day by day as there's no way to guess what actually happens when you hit demand or supply/ support or resistance. There will be buyers/sellers waiting there but it's dependent in the end if one side overcomes the other and pushes it through the zone.
Also note - overall trend above the 200ma and candle on the 40ma
On the daily inside this 8 month broadening pattern - while we've seen rally's and flushes, all it did was build up this pattern.
Zero volume analysis here of which move was real which wasn't, just look at this 30 year fib channel and how price moved by forming massive consolidations and reactions on each tier.
Daily -
Tight spot leading into this week. For the bulls - a breakout of this formation with a pullback retest could indicate a sentiment change.
While strong rally into resistance there is also a potential bearish butterfly harmonic at play for the bears. A rejection at resistance would be validating towards the harmonic. No confirmation of a reversal point yet simply because we need more candles to see and nothing is certain until a candle closes.
If butterfly valid - retrace to a 0.5 (3982) is first thing to look for. Could bounce could see continuation lower and ultimately the 1.618 (3216) measured move assuming it retraces through 1.0 (3639)
If breakout, retest and hold - would be looking at some weekly supply reactions starting at 4541 and then above areas towards previous ATH.
Watch it day by day as there's no way to guess what actually happens when you hit demand or supply/ support or resistance. There will be buyers/sellers waiting there but it's dependent in the end if one side overcomes the other and pushes it through the zone.
Also note - overall trend above the 200ma and candle on the 40ma
Note
Weekly pivot (white box) 4110-4178 also a big area for retest if resistance rejects.Note
Harmonic at play. Broke the weekly pivot and also broadening correction level. Zone could see retest next week - retest/reclaim, retest/fail and then a move to come. Watch confirmation, only a candle close will tell you if buyer/sellers on the day. The 3rd option is continuation lower next week. 
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.