This Bear Market Is Almost Over But...
This chart contains the overall planned levels for the bottom. The details are below. Primary wave 5 levels are annotated on the left of the lines and Intermediate wave 5 levels on the right. The blue lines are based on the most specific wave position data and the yellows are slightly less specific. The other lines are common Fibonacci and algorithmic trading levels. The significance of 198 trading days was highlighted in my prior analyses which can be found in my TradingView profile.
It looks like we are in the final leg of this Bear Market. I currently have us in Sub-Millennial wave 1, Grand Supercycle wave 5, Supercycle wave 2, Cycle wave A, Primary wave 5, Intermediate wave 5 and Minor wave 1 or wave 2. Through Intermediate wave 5, I name this wave 152A55, and refer to it as a wave ending in 2A55, A55, or 55. Intermediate wave 5 and Minor wave 1 likely began within the last hour of trading on October 5th. Minute waves 1 and 2 likely concluded on October 6 while wave 3 finished with the low in the first hour of trading on Friday. Minute 4 was the top shortly after that. The current debate is where did or will Minute wave 5 and Minor wave 1 end? The majority of Friday was Minute 5 and if it concluded it is displayed here.
There is a chance we are still in the late stages of Minute wave 5 and Minor wave 1. I don’t exactly like this because Minute wave 5 is quite long, however, it is not constrained by length requirements this time. My wave 3 indicator has fired at two locations in the chart below. The first tends to identify waves 3 of 3 and the final may find the end of a wave 3.
The theory of us remaining in Minor wave 1 should prodcue a new low beneath 3620 on Monday and a large up day on Tuesday. The theory we are in Minor wave 2 would have us up pretty much all day on Monday and Tuesday.
No matter what, this analysis is meant to layout the final movements of Cycle wave A, Primary wave 5 and Intermediate wave 5.
BEAR MARKET BOTTOM (CYCLE WAVE A) BASED ON PRIMARY WAVE 5 PROJECTIONS
As of Friday’s close, Primary wave 5 is 37 days long. Primary wave 1 was 35, 2 was 23, 3 was 56, and 4 was 40. Studying waves ending in 2A5, there is not much model agreement on Primary wave 5’s length. The most now is 8 models on 40 days, 4 models on 56 days, and 3 models on 37 days. With the inflation report, earnings and the Fed ahead, 37 and 40 days does not sound likely. The move extension percentages by quartile based on waves ending in 2A5 is 112.36% for the first quartile, 1.3509% for the median and 2.0451% for the third quartile. These are plotted on the main chart at the top with blue lines and the values are on the left.
Waves ending in A5 have quartile move extensions of 112.36% again, 122.26%, and 163.93%. These levels are plotted on the chart above with annotations on the left and yellow lines. My models have more agreement on length. Most agreement has 12 models pointing to a length of 40 days, 10 models at 37 days, 8 models at 56 and 60 days, with 7 models at 46 days. Day 46 would be October 20th and this could be close to the bottom.
BEAR MARKET BOTTOM (CYCLE WAVE A) BASED ON INTERMEDIATE WAVE 5 PROJECTIONS
Now that we have got through Intermediate waves 1-3 and most likely 4, my models use this data to further project were Intermediate wave 5 should end. I can then take this day as well as the Primary wave 5 data in attempts to refine the potential bottom.
Intermediate wave 1 lasted 14 days, 2 was 4 days, 3 was also 14, and wave 4 was 2 days as of now. Our initial wag (wild a** guess) was for Intermediate 5 to last around 15 days. Since wave 1 generally makes up 20% of the larger wave it is in we figured wave 1 would be 3 days, 2 would be 2, 3 would be 4, 4 would be 1-2, and 5 would be around 3. This would roughly place the bottom of 1 on October 10th, top of 2 on October 12th, bottom of 3 (after a significant drop from the inflation report) on October 18th, top of 4 on October 19th or 20th, and the final bottom around October 25th. The models for day length based on waves ending in A55 have the most agreement for a total length of 3, 4, and 8 days. The second most agreement is 9 days, and then a third place tie for 10, 17, 18, 21, and 32 days long. Less than 8 days in my opinion is too quick, however, time will tell. The quartile move extension for waves ending in A55 are 106.1%, 133.14% and 167.15%. The levels are on the main chart with annotations on the right with blue lines.
Lastly is the larger and more broad dataset for waves ending in 55. The most model agreement is between 2-4 days total (55-58 models point here). The next area of agreement has 29 models at 5 days, 28 at 6 days, 27 at 10 days, 21 at 7 and 14 days, 18 at 8 days, 14 at 12 days, 12 at 11 days, and 10 at 20 days. The move extensions are 112.52% for the first quartile, 126.93% for the median and 148.58% for the third quartile. These levels are annotated on the right of the main chart above and with yellow lines.
Based on all of this data and projections, there are some points of agreement for the Primary and Intermediate levels on the chart. I originally projected the bottom between 3200-3450 which still appears to remain viable. I am currently estimating the bottom before November 3rd and most likely closer to October 21-25. I don’t see us breaking below 3300 this time (most likely set to occur in 2024). I conservatively like the bottom below 3440 and likely below 3400. I think the major catalyst will be the inflation report on the 13th which currently coincides with the beginning of Minor wave 3 inside of Intermediate wave 5. We will likely go down on Monday, up on Tuesday and top on Wednesday of this coming week. The inflation report will impact the early earnings reporters as well. A “bad” inflation report will likely cause the earnings projections to be lowered. The Fed will likely not come out until their meeting in the first week of November. I don’t think their decision will roil the markets and that will likely be the reason for the major gains we are forecasting over the next 7-10 months. The Fed did not want to impact the 2020 election and were dovish when they needed to be hawkish. If another global event occurs between now and then the Fed may also be dovish as they were when the Ukraine war began. No matter what, we see large gains (Cycle wave B - up) on the horizon and slower Fed policy but this bill will come due late next year and things will be gravely worse for the market (Cycle wave C – down) at the end of 2023 and all of2024.
It looks like we are in the final leg of this Bear Market. I currently have us in Sub-Millennial wave 1, Grand Supercycle wave 5, Supercycle wave 2, Cycle wave A, Primary wave 5, Intermediate wave 5 and Minor wave 1 or wave 2. Through Intermediate wave 5, I name this wave 152A55, and refer to it as a wave ending in 2A55, A55, or 55. Intermediate wave 5 and Minor wave 1 likely began within the last hour of trading on October 5th. Minute waves 1 and 2 likely concluded on October 6 while wave 3 finished with the low in the first hour of trading on Friday. Minute 4 was the top shortly after that. The current debate is where did or will Minute wave 5 and Minor wave 1 end? The majority of Friday was Minute 5 and if it concluded it is displayed here.
There is a chance we are still in the late stages of Minute wave 5 and Minor wave 1. I don’t exactly like this because Minute wave 5 is quite long, however, it is not constrained by length requirements this time. My wave 3 indicator has fired at two locations in the chart below. The first tends to identify waves 3 of 3 and the final may find the end of a wave 3.
The theory of us remaining in Minor wave 1 should prodcue a new low beneath 3620 on Monday and a large up day on Tuesday. The theory we are in Minor wave 2 would have us up pretty much all day on Monday and Tuesday.
No matter what, this analysis is meant to layout the final movements of Cycle wave A, Primary wave 5 and Intermediate wave 5.
BEAR MARKET BOTTOM (CYCLE WAVE A) BASED ON PRIMARY WAVE 5 PROJECTIONS
As of Friday’s close, Primary wave 5 is 37 days long. Primary wave 1 was 35, 2 was 23, 3 was 56, and 4 was 40. Studying waves ending in 2A5, there is not much model agreement on Primary wave 5’s length. The most now is 8 models on 40 days, 4 models on 56 days, and 3 models on 37 days. With the inflation report, earnings and the Fed ahead, 37 and 40 days does not sound likely. The move extension percentages by quartile based on waves ending in 2A5 is 112.36% for the first quartile, 1.3509% for the median and 2.0451% for the third quartile. These are plotted on the main chart at the top with blue lines and the values are on the left.
Waves ending in A5 have quartile move extensions of 112.36% again, 122.26%, and 163.93%. These levels are plotted on the chart above with annotations on the left and yellow lines. My models have more agreement on length. Most agreement has 12 models pointing to a length of 40 days, 10 models at 37 days, 8 models at 56 and 60 days, with 7 models at 46 days. Day 46 would be October 20th and this could be close to the bottom.
BEAR MARKET BOTTOM (CYCLE WAVE A) BASED ON INTERMEDIATE WAVE 5 PROJECTIONS
Now that we have got through Intermediate waves 1-3 and most likely 4, my models use this data to further project were Intermediate wave 5 should end. I can then take this day as well as the Primary wave 5 data in attempts to refine the potential bottom.
Intermediate wave 1 lasted 14 days, 2 was 4 days, 3 was also 14, and wave 4 was 2 days as of now. Our initial wag (wild a** guess) was for Intermediate 5 to last around 15 days. Since wave 1 generally makes up 20% of the larger wave it is in we figured wave 1 would be 3 days, 2 would be 2, 3 would be 4, 4 would be 1-2, and 5 would be around 3. This would roughly place the bottom of 1 on October 10th, top of 2 on October 12th, bottom of 3 (after a significant drop from the inflation report) on October 18th, top of 4 on October 19th or 20th, and the final bottom around October 25th. The models for day length based on waves ending in A55 have the most agreement for a total length of 3, 4, and 8 days. The second most agreement is 9 days, and then a third place tie for 10, 17, 18, 21, and 32 days long. Less than 8 days in my opinion is too quick, however, time will tell. The quartile move extension for waves ending in A55 are 106.1%, 133.14% and 167.15%. The levels are on the main chart with annotations on the right with blue lines.
Lastly is the larger and more broad dataset for waves ending in 55. The most model agreement is between 2-4 days total (55-58 models point here). The next area of agreement has 29 models at 5 days, 28 at 6 days, 27 at 10 days, 21 at 7 and 14 days, 18 at 8 days, 14 at 12 days, 12 at 11 days, and 10 at 20 days. The move extensions are 112.52% for the first quartile, 126.93% for the median and 148.58% for the third quartile. These levels are annotated on the right of the main chart above and with yellow lines.
Based on all of this data and projections, there are some points of agreement for the Primary and Intermediate levels on the chart. I originally projected the bottom between 3200-3450 which still appears to remain viable. I am currently estimating the bottom before November 3rd and most likely closer to October 21-25. I don’t see us breaking below 3300 this time (most likely set to occur in 2024). I conservatively like the bottom below 3440 and likely below 3400. I think the major catalyst will be the inflation report on the 13th which currently coincides with the beginning of Minor wave 3 inside of Intermediate wave 5. We will likely go down on Monday, up on Tuesday and top on Wednesday of this coming week. The inflation report will impact the early earnings reporters as well. A “bad” inflation report will likely cause the earnings projections to be lowered. The Fed will likely not come out until their meeting in the first week of November. I don’t think their decision will roil the markets and that will likely be the reason for the major gains we are forecasting over the next 7-10 months. The Fed did not want to impact the 2020 election and were dovish when they needed to be hawkish. If another global event occurs between now and then the Fed may also be dovish as they were when the Ukraine war began. No matter what, we see large gains (Cycle wave B - up) on the horizon and slower Fed policy but this bill will come due late next year and things will be gravely worse for the market (Cycle wave C – down) at the end of 2023 and all of2024.
All forecasts are based on analysis of past behavior. Prior movements are not always indicative of future movement. Develop the theory, test the theory. Do your own research. Nothing in this analysis constitutes advice. YouTube For More. Good luck!!
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.