The Rise comes before the Fall
Updated
Greetings Traders & Investors:
Its been a little while since my last post and I hope you are doing well. I've been busy working on getting my office back open the last few weeks so I've been out of pocket, but I thought I would chime in on the current state of the economy and market action. It seems like the Bull is quite strong going into this recession and has broken all FIB Retracement & Resistance levels on this rebound up. Now it seems like we are heading for a double top before the reality of the Economic conditions sets in the second half of this year. The Fed has spared no expense and it seems like there is 1 more Stimulus bullet left in the chamber which should be coming out in 3rd QTR sometime. As for the rally up, I have some insight on this as well.
Every single time the market traded between 20-25% below the 40-week moving average, on the advance up the market always moved anywhere from 15-20% above the 40-week moving average before the run is over. If history is any indication, the S&P 500 should rise between 3,450-3,600 before the Bullish move is ultimately complete. I believe now we will complete this Bullish pattern, and then head for a long trend down to 50% of the S&P Value. This would put us at around S&P 1,800. The bear trend will signify the true bottom when it fulfills its move, and that's when the 6T+ of monies sitting on the sidelines would enter back in.
Now, I suspect the FED will try everything it can to prevent a new low and that's when you'll see them implement YCC (Yield Curve Control), More Massive Liquidity, and another Stimulus in order to try and get through Nov 2020 Elections. I, however am somewhat skeptical they will be able to hold out 5 more months until the elections are over, especially when we are now experiencing spikes of COVID-19 around the country, however it is possible.
In the comments section below I have posted an S&P 500 pic showing how the market reacts to company earnings, we shall get a shot of reality come mid July when Earnings & GDP reports come out. Be careful here, because its very possible the downtrend may begin at this point.
Well folks, that's my hypothesis for the next 6 months in the market. Stay safe out there and trade/invest well.
JP - OUT
Its been a little while since my last post and I hope you are doing well. I've been busy working on getting my office back open the last few weeks so I've been out of pocket, but I thought I would chime in on the current state of the economy and market action. It seems like the Bull is quite strong going into this recession and has broken all FIB Retracement & Resistance levels on this rebound up. Now it seems like we are heading for a double top before the reality of the Economic conditions sets in the second half of this year. The Fed has spared no expense and it seems like there is 1 more Stimulus bullet left in the chamber which should be coming out in 3rd QTR sometime. As for the rally up, I have some insight on this as well.
Every single time the market traded between 20-25% below the 40-week moving average, on the advance up the market always moved anywhere from 15-20% above the 40-week moving average before the run is over. If history is any indication, the S&P 500 should rise between 3,450-3,600 before the Bullish move is ultimately complete. I believe now we will complete this Bullish pattern, and then head for a long trend down to 50% of the S&P Value. This would put us at around S&P 1,800. The bear trend will signify the true bottom when it fulfills its move, and that's when the 6T+ of monies sitting on the sidelines would enter back in.
Now, I suspect the FED will try everything it can to prevent a new low and that's when you'll see them implement YCC (Yield Curve Control), More Massive Liquidity, and another Stimulus in order to try and get through Nov 2020 Elections. I, however am somewhat skeptical they will be able to hold out 5 more months until the elections are over, especially when we are now experiencing spikes of COVID-19 around the country, however it is possible.
In the comments section below I have posted an S&P 500 pic showing how the market reacts to company earnings, we shall get a shot of reality come mid July when Earnings & GDP reports come out. Be careful here, because its very possible the downtrend may begin at this point.
Well folks, that's my hypothesis for the next 6 months in the market. Stay safe out there and trade/invest well.
JP - OUT
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