S&P 500: An Ensuing BEAR MARKET?
Will Trumps protectionist measures dry up liquidity and send the S&P 500 and major US Equities down a volatile bear road? US GDP is standing at a stellar 4.2%, inflation is floating at a relative 2.9%, up from recent 2.8% highs in June. When in fact it is evident that inflation targets for the FEDs have become a primary cause for concern due to sustained increase in inflation over the past 12 to 36 months, the reply is "FED RATE HIKES". The question is how high? The time value of money currently stands at 2%. In relation to the relative level of general price levels in the US, the return factor is subdued by -0.9%. So with the FEDs challenging task at hand of attempting to get inflation in check and to ensure current investors are happy and put no emphasis on relatively low yet negative bleeds on P&L induced by inflation, as well as to entice further investments in its equity markets to sustain the present level of growth, will Trumps trade policy measures help or just further make matters worse for Chairman Powell and his team. Economic activity has been prevalent to an increasing degree, yet the S&P 500 suggests weak capital inflows over the past 12 to 24 months, A suggestion that may also hint at a leakage from the global tap of money movers out of US Equities. Headlines have been rife with every milestone tagged by the Stock Market over the past 24 months, and general consensus is that things are just "A OKAY", in fact things couldn't be any better for the equity markets given a record running bull market. Is "Dumb Money" coat tailing this ride and has "Smart Money" been liquidating positions over the past 12 months with every new headline published? Is it time for the "BIG SHORT"?
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