How Low Will It Go Part Deux
Prior ABC Ideas closed for blowing through projected pivot; we're dealing with a monster here, not a garden variety correction.
Topping formation in Wyckoff distribution. Will sell like Hell, then bounce back into a lower high zone, then sell again... and again.
Looks impulsive. We clearly in Three not a C, which should've turned today.
Three typically = 1.62 x One, so likely headed to 4365 for pivot to Four.
NB: Three can extend up to 2.618 of One, although uncommon... watch and see.
Four will be ~ half as tall as Two by alternating EW rule, won't bounce very high and can't pass One.
Five can be ferocious, may extend up to 1.62 x One but is typically same length, although commonly it measures
.618% extension area of the first & third waves combined measured against the high in the fourth wave.
So to get Five need to see Four. This chart a wag and guess. It's goin pretty far south IMO. WOULD NOT JUMP IN BOTTOM FISHING YET!
Topping formation in Wyckoff distribution. Will sell like Hell, then bounce back into a lower high zone, then sell again... and again.
Looks impulsive. We clearly in Three not a C, which should've turned today.
Three typically = 1.62 x One, so likely headed to 4365 for pivot to Four.
NB: Three can extend up to 2.618 of One, although uncommon... watch and see.
Four will be ~ half as tall as Two by alternating EW rule, won't bounce very high and can't pass One.
Five can be ferocious, may extend up to 1.62 x One but is typically same length, although commonly it measures
.618% extension area of the first & third waves combined measured against the high in the fourth wave.
So to get Five need to see Four. This chart a wag and guess. It's goin pretty far south IMO. WOULD NOT JUMP IN BOTTOM FISHING YET!
Note
This is NOT a post suggesting you ought to short this. It's an idea to remind you just how fg dangerous is bottom fishing. Be damn sure bottom is in before you bite.
Note
Bought some qqq 355s and got amazed to see the damn bounce, looks like a Hammer Doji!Note
Not keen on taking any position atm, might sell more, might hang, might bull next week or just about anything could happen. Pure crapshoot atm.Note
Have flipped a handful of puts in am and calls on the bullup, missed the secondary sell for lunch, lol. i am trading only 3-5 contracts today, as taking any large position is just imprudent at this juncture IMO.Note
IMO still too soon to get long here, maybe next week eh? Evry rally this month has been a bull trap; Be carefull!!Note
Yeah sorry if you went long EOD look at it now, a headfake from hell. IMO there is no viable option trade the premiums on all contracts are insane, 6-9 $ for anything, even tomorrow's dailies. A large price move is already priced in. I watched QQQ lift $4 and the $6 calls went to $7.50. All risk no reward. Staying out.
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Remember your Greeks: Theta, Time works against you, Vega, Volatility works against you as prices stabilize Vega drops, Gamma works against you as demand for contracts, whether puts or calls, lessens the option price drops. And Treasuries work against you, although it's the smallest factor. You are betting on Delta, change in price, but three other option pricing factors are stacked against you!Note
Watching SPY calls, SPX lifted 50 pips, the $6 430 strike daily calls went from $6 to 7.25. An hour of Theta elapsed, Vix dropped $4, Vega and Gamma weaken, your stock moved $4 and the option improved $1.25. Good luck with making a buck off this nutty market!Note
AH Futurz tanked off -500 NQ. Now in late PM trade they bounce back to (+). This is absolutely NUTS. You cannot hold ANYTHING. In spite of the stupidity I bought 200 shares of INTC on a covered write and shorted 2 more puts for $800 credits on the options.Probably gonna be sorry for it LMFAO. I expect Vlad to invade Ukraine this weekend. Sundays are good for kicking off surprise invasions... Pearl Harbor style.
NATO giving him pressure now he likely feels sense of urgency to strike while the iron is hot. Winter campaigns are good there cuz the ground is frozen and hard enough to drive armored vehicles without getting stuck. IMO he's going soon and when they do this thing will crack, cuz it means WWWIII.
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Gap n go LOL, wave 4 underway!Note
Faded the gap with 5 qqq daily puts. OMG these were $4 and after an hour just got my money back, the puts fade faster than the gap FFS. No damned good trades to be had, again.Note
Look at the corrections in October and December. See the double bottom twin spikes on 3 Oct, 3 Dec? Expect the same here, gonna get one more pound down IMONote
IMO 4th wave is in, short the rallies aim for the final flushNote
Might get a right shoulder, would not chase longs here, futurz bearish all nite, likely to close gap and sell down to close their open contracts IMONote
Flipped puts on the gapfill QQQ 350s. Beer money. Not sure wtf it's gonna do EOD the futurz were -200 so MMs could force price down to close their positions EOD.Anything can happen now. Retail BTD pumped price in AM, pros will close in PM, trade with care!
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A secondary weaker rally made a lower high, bearish. If it can't bull higher by EOD Friday gonna see more selling next week IMO.Trade active
Took 400 SPXS Bear shares, in a buy-write short Feb $25 calls.Note
Rally after FOMC is consistent w/Right Shoulder pattern, lower again soon IMOTrade active
Flipped puts twice today but missed the big move EOD running errands. I hate to trade from the car it just doesn't work well...drop signal when entering close orders just sucks!Note
Closed the bear shares on the first dip then ran out to keep an appointment, lol. Futurz did get filled to overnight low, neat trick eh?!Note
Reverse play of thursday's, when it turned from bull to bear; Friday turned from bear to bull. Monday probably Bear again, it is seeking a bottom, typically gonna get a double tap on the lows before really moving higher.Note
TBVH, I envision a COVID-like bear market for '22, IMO this down leg in Jan is just the First Impulsive Move. Over several months likely to get even More Bearish IMO, a retracement rally here is expected from the prior correction LPSY, but this time BTFD will be a trap IMO.INtermediate term bottom may appear in March, followed by an April rally and another May/June Swoon. Next six months forecast: probly gonna be mostly Beary, with scattered bully days and a chance of capitulation.
Note
Be real careful about going balls to the walls in calls this week folks, remember 3 Dec, had been getting higher lows just before, then BAM! Friday PM selloff Vaporized calls, a selling climax. 28 Jan was a powerhour mad rally, but these often end up selling back down... Maybe the near-term low is printed, maybe it's still yet to print. Just saying... looks like a gap up forming, might be a gap n go, might fill first, anybody's guess. FYI, most AM up gaps have filled within an hour of open, but a few filled EOD, so daily puts were losers anyway as after six hours they command no premium. Be careful!
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