Down For Two More Days and then...
Today’s break below 4238 all but sealed the deal on Minor wave 4 going up higher. Most likely path now is the index is well into Minor wave 5 en route to the bottom below 4130 in the coming days. Some signs that Intermediate wave 3 does not have much more to decline is the multiple wave 3 signals visible on the Daily chart. A gap between wave 3 signals indicates the end of a wave 3 of 3 and the beginning of the end of the wave 3 itself.
The first signal clearly occurred where Minor wave 3 was believed to have ended. A return of the signal based on today’s trading means we may get a few more days of signaling before the bottom is established. But this firmly hints that Minor 4 is no more. The data for forecasting Intermediate wave 3 remains valid from yesterday as nothing has changed to impact those values. The slope to move up to yesterday’s forecasted Minor 4 endpoint to the Intermediate wave 3 endpoint looks much more realistic today after confirmation Minor wave 4 ended many hours ago.
METHODOLOGY:
I operate a modified wave theory composed of Dow Theory and Elliott Wave Theory. All data is determined from comparing current wave locations with historical wave relationships. The listed percentages are based on previous movement extensions and retracement quartiles of the data. There is too much data to list all points but overlap of the quartiles based on specific relationships tends to point to more likely targets. The light pink levels are based on most specific data, light blue is slightly broader, and yellow levels are the broader set of data used. A red level typically indicates maximum historical move for the current wave throughout the historical data.
MINOR 5:
Minor wave 1 was 21 hours, wave 2 was 40 hours, wave 3 was 62 hours, and wave 4 was a measly 10 hours. There are zero requirements left in play for Minor wave 5’s length meaning it can end tomorrow or a week from now (less likely, just getting the point across). Minor wave 5 is currently 20 hours old. The models point to a duration for Minor wave 5 to be less than 59 hours which would be the morning of October 11th. Some models indicate 45-50 hours for duration, with a renewed uptick around 52-54 hours long. Another pocket of strength is at 35 hours which is just over 2 trading days away. Models are indicating a bottom between 4115-4150 for Minor wave 5, with a bottom as early as 4200. The overlap in the Minor wave 5 bottom and Intermediate wave 3 bottom is a small area between 4115-4140 between the end of trading on Friday and midday next Monday. While both the yellow and magenta boxes could contain (or neither) the bottom, this small white overlap box will be the focus.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR:
If the bottom is Friday or Monday, Friday is very busy from a news standpoint, while Monday appears calm. If the bottom is Friday, it may go down initially as the early morning numbers are digested but then beginning to slowly move up later or Monday begins to drift upward on no news and a holiday for some folks.
The first signal clearly occurred where Minor wave 3 was believed to have ended. A return of the signal based on today’s trading means we may get a few more days of signaling before the bottom is established. But this firmly hints that Minor 4 is no more. The data for forecasting Intermediate wave 3 remains valid from yesterday as nothing has changed to impact those values. The slope to move up to yesterday’s forecasted Minor 4 endpoint to the Intermediate wave 3 endpoint looks much more realistic today after confirmation Minor wave 4 ended many hours ago.
METHODOLOGY:
I operate a modified wave theory composed of Dow Theory and Elliott Wave Theory. All data is determined from comparing current wave locations with historical wave relationships. The listed percentages are based on previous movement extensions and retracement quartiles of the data. There is too much data to list all points but overlap of the quartiles based on specific relationships tends to point to more likely targets. The light pink levels are based on most specific data, light blue is slightly broader, and yellow levels are the broader set of data used. A red level typically indicates maximum historical move for the current wave throughout the historical data.
MINOR 5:
Minor wave 1 was 21 hours, wave 2 was 40 hours, wave 3 was 62 hours, and wave 4 was a measly 10 hours. There are zero requirements left in play for Minor wave 5’s length meaning it can end tomorrow or a week from now (less likely, just getting the point across). Minor wave 5 is currently 20 hours old. The models point to a duration for Minor wave 5 to be less than 59 hours which would be the morning of October 11th. Some models indicate 45-50 hours for duration, with a renewed uptick around 52-54 hours long. Another pocket of strength is at 35 hours which is just over 2 trading days away. Models are indicating a bottom between 4115-4150 for Minor wave 5, with a bottom as early as 4200. The overlap in the Minor wave 5 bottom and Intermediate wave 3 bottom is a small area between 4115-4140 between the end of trading on Friday and midday next Monday. While both the yellow and magenta boxes could contain (or neither) the bottom, this small white overlap box will be the focus.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR:
If the bottom is Friday or Monday, Friday is very busy from a news standpoint, while Monday appears calm. If the bottom is Friday, it may go down initially as the early morning numbers are digested but then beginning to slowly move up later or Monday begins to drift upward on no news and a holiday for some folks.
All forecasts are based on analysis of past behavior. Prior movements are not always indicative of future movement. Develop the theory, test the theory. Do your own research. Nothing in this analysis constitutes advice. YouTube For More. Good luck!!
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