SPX: What could make it hit 4,652?
Hello traders and investors! Let’s take a look at the SPX.
Today, it is breaking the purple trend line we mentioned yesterday, which is good, and this might be the beginning of a new bullish movement. However, in order to make it an official bullish sign, we must do higher highs/lows again.
Despite the lack of bullish signs in the past few days, the index has been in a bull trend since Jan 24, and it has been doing higher highs/lows. What’s more, I don’t see any bearish structure that could convince me we would drop from here. If we had a sign of a bearish pivot, double top, H&S, etc., then the story would be different.
Let’s see the daily chart, for more clues:
The problem with the index is that it is having a hard time breaking its resistance at the 21 ema. In the past four days, the 21 ema worked amazingly well as our main resistance, while the 38.2% retracement is our support (coincidence or not, the 38.2% is the black line seen in the 1h chart too).
We see a possible pivot point, and if the index breaks its 21 ema, the momentum might be strong enough for us to break the 4,600 area and hit our target.
I already set the target at 4,652 (open gap seen in the 1h chart), and for now, there’s nothing that could change my thesis. This week we have CPI, and surely, the volatility will increase, so we must keep our eyes open on Thursday.
What could put our thesis at risk? Again, if it triggers any bearish structure in the 1h chart. What’s more, I would keep my eye on the 4,453 support, as this seems to be a key point.
I’ll update you guys tomorrow, so remember to follow me to not miss any of my future analyses. All the best.
Today, it is breaking the purple trend line we mentioned yesterday, which is good, and this might be the beginning of a new bullish movement. However, in order to make it an official bullish sign, we must do higher highs/lows again.
Despite the lack of bullish signs in the past few days, the index has been in a bull trend since Jan 24, and it has been doing higher highs/lows. What’s more, I don’t see any bearish structure that could convince me we would drop from here. If we had a sign of a bearish pivot, double top, H&S, etc., then the story would be different.
Let’s see the daily chart, for more clues:
The problem with the index is that it is having a hard time breaking its resistance at the 21 ema. In the past four days, the 21 ema worked amazingly well as our main resistance, while the 38.2% retracement is our support (coincidence or not, the 38.2% is the black line seen in the 1h chart too).
We see a possible pivot point, and if the index breaks its 21 ema, the momentum might be strong enough for us to break the 4,600 area and hit our target.
I already set the target at 4,652 (open gap seen in the 1h chart), and for now, there’s nothing that could change my thesis. This week we have CPI, and surely, the volatility will increase, so we must keep our eyes open on Thursday.
What could put our thesis at risk? Again, if it triggers any bearish structure in the 1h chart. What’s more, I would keep my eye on the 4,453 support, as this seems to be a key point.
I’ll update you guys tomorrow, so remember to follow me to not miss any of my future analyses. All the best.
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