Bears have spike risk to 5200 area.

I am starting to build up a swing bear position again but there's a lot of risk of aggressive stop hunting before a big reversal sets up.

In the case of aggressive stop hunting, I'd expect to see somewhere around 5170 hitting.

Picking up longs now to offset accumulation of a short position into a rally if one comes.

Would love to be short in the 5200 - 5600 range if we get there, but would want to make money on the up first.

Note

I think this is underway now.

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We've now filled almost all of the spike risk area.

Hedges were closed 5050 - 5100 zone.

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"In the case of aggressive stop hunting, I'd expect to see somewhere around 5170 hitting."

5150 tagged. Maybe that was enough.

Trade active

All short limits set for this move filled.

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Been building up swing short positions over the last days in various different things and starting to think about buying some more aggressive OTM puts on indices.

If we're going to turn I think we'd have to be getting close to it.

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All short limits filled on the 5200 tag.

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If this is going to be right, then the brief trading above 5200 would have been a false breakout.

A false breakout is evidenced by a sharp return to the break and then it holding a retest.

Now we get to see what happens on that retest.

holeyprofit

We may be inside of a crash event to 3000 in SPX.

Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx

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holeyprofit

We may be inside of a crash event to 3000 in SPX.

Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx

Also on: