SPX Long
Updated
I'm long Nasdaq and Rut from near market bottom and been nice ride up for a month. I'm using SPX for this chart as most use this as a guide. Why am I long? Reasons below.
You can see the V shape recovery in market.
21 MA crossing the 50 MA is bullish signal.
Fed PPT stepped in at Nasdaq 200 MA. All weekly indexes 200 MA broke through and Nasdaq 200 weekly MA last line in sand for huge dump, but PPT stepped in. PPT is for real. I announced I was buying Nasdaq in chat, longed at 6984. Rut got not as good but still not bad at 1135.
With Fed stepping in increasing their balance sheet unseen like any before 6.5 Trillion expansion and Fed Chairman Powell said they have unlimited money basically to provide more if needed. States been given the okay to open up the economy, phase 1 of 3. See Fed balance sheet expansion in relation to SPX. Don’t fight the Fed. flickr.com/photos/186259512@N07/49856381818/in/dateposted-public/
Yesterday Steven Mnuchin announced more increase in Fed balance sheet 3 Trillion! npr.org/2020/05/04/850261945/u-s-treasury-to-borrow-3-trillion-in-3-months-to-pay-for-pandemic
Summer is near and beautiful sunshine (hint). Market front run the virus Peak in April, they mostly looking at death rates peaked and curve flattening. This doesn't mean we get don't volatility, crazy since market bottom of swings 1000 pts on Dow or more, but it's been an upward drift. Coronavirus is family of SARS, also known SARS 2 (SARS--COV-2), and SARS disappeared in summer time. Some experts say this virus will start to pass in June.
This chart was done in February from China data indicating a peak in death rates in USA in April. This is what the market was looking at and front run the peak. Plus, with Fed bailing out just about everyone, well we got the V shape recovery in the market. flickr.com/photos/186259512@N07/49805470238/in/dateposted-public/
I do lot of research besides just looking at the chart. It is always good to have situational awareness. I will update this post with more information or ideas when I see it.
You can see the V shape recovery in market.
21 MA crossing the 50 MA is bullish signal.
Fed PPT stepped in at Nasdaq 200 MA. All weekly indexes 200 MA broke through and Nasdaq 200 weekly MA last line in sand for huge dump, but PPT stepped in. PPT is for real. I announced I was buying Nasdaq in chat, longed at 6984. Rut got not as good but still not bad at 1135.
With Fed stepping in increasing their balance sheet unseen like any before 6.5 Trillion expansion and Fed Chairman Powell said they have unlimited money basically to provide more if needed. States been given the okay to open up the economy, phase 1 of 3. See Fed balance sheet expansion in relation to SPX. Don’t fight the Fed. flickr.com/photos/186259512@N07/49856381818/in/dateposted-public/
Yesterday Steven Mnuchin announced more increase in Fed balance sheet 3 Trillion! npr.org/2020/05/04/850261945/u-s-treasury-to-borrow-3-trillion-in-3-months-to-pay-for-pandemic
Summer is near and beautiful sunshine (hint). Market front run the virus Peak in April, they mostly looking at death rates peaked and curve flattening. This doesn't mean we get don't volatility, crazy since market bottom of swings 1000 pts on Dow or more, but it's been an upward drift. Coronavirus is family of SARS, also known SARS 2 (SARS--COV-2), and SARS disappeared in summer time. Some experts say this virus will start to pass in June.
This chart was done in February from China data indicating a peak in death rates in USA in April. This is what the market was looking at and front run the peak. Plus, with Fed bailing out just about everyone, well we got the V shape recovery in the market. flickr.com/photos/186259512@N07/49805470238/in/dateposted-public/
I do lot of research besides just looking at the chart. It is always good to have situational awareness. I will update this post with more information or ideas when I see it.
Note
Goldman Sachs says the economy has ‘probably bottomed now’ ahead of a second-half surge cnbc.com/2020/05/04/goldman-sachs-economy-has-probably-bottomed-ahead-of-second-half-surge.htmlTrade active
Why is market going up on unemployment? Market sees the rate of decline in jobless claims. Crazy but this is how the market sees it and knowing Fed is printing like crazy. See here:flickr.com/photos/186259512@N07/49870343353/in/dateposted-public/
Fed now has the world’s largest balance sheet. axios.com/fed-world-largest-balance-sheet-e1383ee1-4df1-4ec6-bacd-99c70404d22f.html
Fed is creating another bubble. Where will the next top be? Who knows? But trying to fight the biggest whale the Fed can wreck an account. I explained in my previous posts how Fed is funneling money through Repo to banks to buy stocks. Repo has subsided, but they are doing it in another way I’m sure. I was telling in chat about Fed Repo when I bought October low 2019 when it was filled with bears, but nobody listened till market started going up. These are the same bears in chat that were shorting market rise at every time they thought a top back then, only to see it going higher. I was probably the biggest bull in the chat. Bears were talking about evaluations and how market didn’t make sense just like they are doing now. No bear was talking about the virus then until we go hit by the virus. Now they attack me for being so bullish before virus came. None of them were even talking about the virus before then and we can all agree this was one of the biggest black swan events in history.
In fact, on my post I told in February I was concerned about oil and spx correlation, and sold SPX by EOD on 2-4-20. I was in cash and was day trading buying dips and making profits so easy, not just on indexes but other stocks like Tesla and even mentioned it chat, but closed my positions by end of day. Then I disappeared for awhile when market crash so they use that against me since I was a big bull. Yeah I did disappear, took a break, and decided to take care of my family from the virus as some things were more important. I couldn’t focus on the market at that time. I posted a comment in a previous post I sold SPX, rode Spx 2,924 from October low 2019 when Dow crossed 200 MA on daily and sold it 3,295 by EOD on 2-4-20.
Comment: I sold all my longs by EOD today 2-4-20. Why? Because oil try to rebound but failed and dropped lower. To me this is a danger signal to SPX. If oil can rebound, then ok but because it failed to rebound today caused me to get out. I can get back in market later, but for now take my money and run.
I am using the same strategy that I did in 2008 crisis. I bought the 2009 low in Rut and held it for 6 years! Not saying I’m going to hold it that long from buying March low in Nasdaq and Rut in early April, but I can literally walk away from market take a vacation but dam the virus so no vacation.
Trade active
Fed printing like crazy. The QE that they did in 2008 for a month the Fed now does in a day: marketwatch.com/story/assets-on-fed-balance-sheet-rise-to-record-672-trillion-2020-05-07Trade active
‘We’ve seen the lows in March’ for the stock market, says man who called Dow 20,000 in 2015, ‘and we will never see those lows again marketwatch.com/story/weve-seen-the-lows-in-march-for-the-stock-market-says-man-who-called-dow-20000-in-2015-and-we-will-never-see-those-lows-again-2020-05-08?mod=home-page
Note
I bought MRNA at 21 and change now at 64 target 100, though some are saying 200 or 300 we see. They are using fast track new technology to make a vaccine for Coronavirus with it's goal having it by this fall. Already completed phase 1 trails, on phase 2, and Phase 3 study early this summer.Why Moderna's Stock Is Trading Higher Today benzinga.com/news/20/05/16001276/why-modernas-stock-is-trading-higher-today
Note
More stimulus coming and coming. Mnuchin on further stimulus: 'We're willing to spend whatever it takes,' but it needs to be done 'carefully' thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/496997-mnuchin-on-further-stimulus-were-willing-to-spend-whatever-it
Note
The Fed keeps buying in it's many ways to prop this market up. cnbc.com/2020/05/12/the-fed-is-starting-up-its-program-to-purchase-corporate-bond-etfs.html
Note
As I been saying to Bears for sometime, "Don't short Scientist and Doctors." If they find a drug treatment, that is very bullish because a vaccine is months away. timesofisrael.com/israeli-lab-confirms-breakthrough-with-virus-antibody-but-says-months-till-cure/
ksat.com/news/local/2020/05/12/university-hospital-ut-health-san-antonio-begin-second-phase-of-patient-testing-for-promising-covid-19-drug/
medicalnewstoday.com/articles/covid-19-3-drug-combo-treatment-may-be-successful
Note
Yesterday Doctor Fauci talked the market down. Notice how Trump doesn't say anything about that? IMO the market needed to pullback some for next leg higher or we be like bitcoin and have a big correction. This was designed just for that to pullback, then go higher. This is how they play the market. I been watching almost every Coronavirus Task Force meeting and they know what they are doing. They are data driven, and any flare up from virus they have plan to isolate and put out those fires, so to speak. There won't be another shutdown of whole economy.Note
Powell spoke this morning 5-13-20. “Additional fiscal support could be costly, but worth it if it helps avoid long-term economic damage and leaves us with a stronger recovery. This tradeoff is one for our elected representatives, who wield powers of taxation and spending,” he said.
In another words, Fed is willing to do whatever it takes to bring economy to speedy recovery. Flashback to March 2009.
cnbc.com/2020/05/13/feds-powell-says-more-policy-help-may-be-needed-to-pull-the-us-out-of-economic-downturn.html?__source=sharebar|twitter&par=sharebar
Note
Or negative rates coming? It seems Europe is for it. Trump is for it. If we get negative rates watch stocks go to new ATH. With zero or negative bonds there will be no where money to go but to stocks and gold, even bitcoin IMO. finance.yahoo.com/news/negative-rates-bets-going-global-122400656.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw
Note
If we get a second wave that many bears are calling for, then watch the Fed be forced to go negative rates. This will vault stocks, gold, even bitcoin higher as I mentioned in my previous comment. nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/05/negative-interest-rates-coronavirus-recession-fed-powell-trump.html
Note
Last week I got off 3 bans back to back. There is one Mod we don’t see eye to eye. I was not able to update in timely manner. As a result, I will no longer be publishing new ideas or comments, so this is my last comment. Besides, I’m positioned well from my longs and don’t really need to be here day to day but I do have my mobile most of the time. I’m still long and we are going higher, to new highs probably sooner than anyone expects. The information I provided already is sufficient. I hope I had been able to help some people. I may show up in chat from time to time. Good luck trading and stay safe.
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