The S&P 500 is in a relief rally and you can see it's forming a rising wedge. I did an FIB retracement on it which shows it just tapped the .5 FIB today, but I think it should go up a bit higher. Now that it's bearish the RSI shouldn't get above 60. Also, the RSI is forming a rising wedge that looks like its going to drop right around 60. On the previous drop It stalled out at the 50 SMA and front ran the .618 shown here:
So the plan should be when the RSI gets close to 60, the price gets close or hits the 50 SMA, and near the .618 should be when to place a short. There's also resistance around 2630. If these happen this should give the best probability for the short to be most profitable. Around 2100-2250 is where the shorts should be TPed at because there's good level of support. The -.236 and -.618 are there. You can see the .382 FIB is around there on the the 2009-2018 run up. The picture should get clearer on when to TP as the drop finishes.
Short at ~2600
TP: ~2100-2250
So the plan should be when the RSI gets close to 60, the price gets close or hits the 50 SMA, and near the .618 should be when to place a short. There's also resistance around 2630. If these happen this should give the best probability for the short to be most profitable. Around 2100-2250 is where the shorts should be TPed at because there's good level of support. The -.236 and -.618 are there. You can see the .382 FIB is around there on the the 2009-2018 run up. The picture should get clearer on when to TP as the drop finishes.
Short at ~2600
TP: ~2100-2250
Note
I did an FIB extension of wave A and it matches up perfectly to the .618 and 50 SMA. 2624ish is best place to have orders. Do not forget to ladder buy
Note
It bounced off of lower support. This might be the final push up to the lower 2600 range. I did ladder some shorts in at the 2590s range but not many. 2620-2640 is the area to short if this price bounces. Notice the RSI fell out of its rising wedge which could indicate that its losing momentum.
Note
Oops that was the wrong chart lol. This is what I'm talking about
Note
Last try. It might be bugged but if this doesn't work just look at older charts
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.