Great Bear Flag Will Soon Break
Updated
"The Bull Market is back!" Say the TV talking heads. But in spite of the tech runup, small caps remain stagnant and 40% of stonks still trade below their 200 DMA.
So, the 'bullishness' is limited to the glamour go-go issues. NVDA, MSFT, AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, GOOG META... etc etc all go higher, while the rest languish.
That ain't a bull market, it's a Bear Market Rally. And now we go VIX squeezed back down under 16, the flag is nearly unfurled imo.
P/C and bear sentiment crushed to lows not seen since Jan 2022. Everyone thinks it's going higher, that's when it rolls over.
Double-double top; beware of drop. Y2K meltdown took two years. This one probly be about the same.
When you think it's over, think again. Bear ain't over until all hope is lost and greed crushed. Get ready.
So, the 'bullishness' is limited to the glamour go-go issues. NVDA, MSFT, AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, GOOG META... etc etc all go higher, while the rest languish.
That ain't a bull market, it's a Bear Market Rally. And now we go VIX squeezed back down under 16, the flag is nearly unfurled imo.
P/C and bear sentiment crushed to lows not seen since Jan 2022. Everyone thinks it's going higher, that's when it rolls over.
Double-double top; beware of drop. Y2K meltdown took two years. This one probly be about the same.
When you think it's over, think again. Bear ain't over until all hope is lost and greed crushed. Get ready.
Order cancelled
Yeah bear shares got melted. Only bright spot was the covered calls I sold defrayed the drawdown. Out for now, sorry!
Note
Yeah it was relief rally off debt deal. Unexpectedly bullish for DJI, RUT. Notice relative weakness in NQ...tapped out? We will see.
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Loaded up bear shares with SPX trading near 4300. EOD sell came as pleasant surprise to shorts. Had to scramble to cover calls I wrote on the ETFs. Holding SPXS SDOW SQQQ TZA.
Look for a PINBAR Tuesday. IF we get it, that's a clear sell signal.
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closed shorts in am weakness ofc now it bulls, btfd! no pinbar 2day eh?Trade active
well look what the algos did. RTY +5% in 2 days, NQ tanked... they took money from other indexes to pump RUT. go figure. banked a bit off a few putskis today.more econoreports thurs am could be an excuse to bull again. who knows. all risk little reward up here.
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4293 on the bounce. looks toppy. sector rotation is bewildering, look at RUT...evry penny taken from NQ went into RTY...how long will it last until the house of cards tumbles?!Note
Again at 4293 EOD... fading... shorted SPY, QQQ at 429, 353.Trade closed: stop reached
fooled aginNote
Probly stopped out at the top, pretty standardNote
Has now 'topped' 3x in past week. Patterns...useless. Indicators...worthless. Goes overbought, then more so.Probably will end badly, but could be a long wait until then.
Shorts seem imprudent at this juncture. Chasing it, more so. Staying out.
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