5th Wave Under Way: Look for a Top Wednesday, Thursday or Friday
Still looking for the 5th wave to form and then to be followed by a crash move. The next 3 months are likely going to be brutal. I don't think Congress reaches a deal for new stimulus by the August 10th recess one week from now. I think that will tank the market along a other reasons I listed in my last post.
Again, I think we bounce higher first, to finish the 5th wave and once its done, a crash will follow. I think SPX will attempt to fill the gap at 3328. Once done the crash should begin. I do believe that the next crash will be worse than the Feb crash. My market breadth indicators are flashing the same warning signs they did back February.
If we selloff and take out the 50 % fib retracement of the last bull market at 2030, then the 2016 comes into place at 1810. We take out that level of support the 78.6 fib will likely be tested at 1708.
Here they are again:
The catalysts for the next selloff:
The election (uncertainty)
Covid-19 cases trending higher
On July 30th we got a contraction in Q2 GDP officially moving the US into a recession
Q2 Earnings
US-China tensions
Trump has scrapped plans for a phase 2 deal with China
Stimulus Effect Wearing Off
The extra $600 a week in unemployment benefits is now over
New State Lockdowns
New Stimulus Delay
Uptick in Unemployment with New Lockdowns
Again, I think we bounce higher first, to finish the 5th wave and once its done, a crash will follow. I think SPX will attempt to fill the gap at 3328. Once done the crash should begin. I do believe that the next crash will be worse than the Feb crash. My market breadth indicators are flashing the same warning signs they did back February.
If we selloff and take out the 50 % fib retracement of the last bull market at 2030, then the 2016 comes into place at 1810. We take out that level of support the 78.6 fib will likely be tested at 1708.
Here they are again:
The catalysts for the next selloff:
The election (uncertainty)
Covid-19 cases trending higher
On July 30th we got a contraction in Q2 GDP officially moving the US into a recession
Q2 Earnings
US-China tensions
Trump has scrapped plans for a phase 2 deal with China
Stimulus Effect Wearing Off
The extra $600 a week in unemployment benefits is now over
New State Lockdowns
New Stimulus Delay
Uptick in Unemployment with New Lockdowns
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