Short

SPX: The show will start soon

Updated

The first wake-up calls from some giants have already begun to arrive. It remains to wait for the time lag at high rates to work out, then we will officially enter a recession. I expect a decent drop in the income of most companies, the real estate market as well as the banking sector will be in a terrible state. It's not finished yet, be careful.

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Note

Do you believe in a 50% rally down?

The inversion of the yield curve is growing, which historically has always been a precursor to a recession, but always with a different time interval. It is generally accepted that from the start of a cycle of aggressive Fed rate hikes to the real impact of a rate hike on the economy, a certain amount of time passes, the so-called "time lag". Now we see fairly strong economic data that has been published for the last 2 quarters, but do not forget that all the positive data allows the Fed to raise the rate higher and higher, which may eventually lead to a new wave of inflation and a deep recession. I expect a recession in the US in the next 2 quarters and a possible fall in the indices until mid-2024, after which we will see a new cycle of growth and "pumping" the markets. Not an investment recommendation. Good luck to everyone and please subscribe.

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