S&P 500 IndexShort
Multi-decade bear market turn coming? History indicates so...
In all of history, its' a fact that the most expansive and sustained growth & PEACE occured w/monetary systems of 1:1 gold backing.
Now history is repeating itself in all the same patterns across the globe and politics. It's unreal and amazing to witness at the same time.
In the last ~150 years we have had a new global currency about every 30-40 years and are long overdue on the next shift…
you see it coming though with SDRs (IMF basket of special drawing rights) and crypto/bitcoin evolutions.
Here is brief history of USD and global monetary systems since turn of century. :
1) 1873~1913 "1:1 GOLD BACKED CURRENCY"
US goes back to 1:1 gold backing after periods off in 1878. Previously the peg to gold was broken for a few years in 1862 to finance the civil war. Germany & rest of world follows.
Worthy to note was in 1913 the Federal Reserve was (secretly) created on Jekyll Island by cabal of bankers and instituted first (illegal) US income tax to skim off the people.
Prior to this creation of the fed and central banking, an unconstitutional income tax was never required through US history.
2) 1914~1944 "THE GOLD EXCHANGE STANDARD"
During WWI (1914~1918), all of the global combatant countries stopped their 1:1 gold pegs their gold redemption rights so they could fire up printing presses to finance their militaries.
This was the new monetary debasement across the world that ensued and different countries had different ratios of gold to their respective currency.
In US, we had under the Federal Reserve Act of 1913, a new 40% ratio which meant $50 worth of claim checks of currency in circulation to $20 of gold in the US vault.
3) 1944~1971 "THE BRETTON-WOODS SYSTEM
During both WWI & WWII, combatant ally countries paid America to finance their wars in gold given US didn't have much troops on the ground throughout most of both wars.
Instead US sold military equipment and food. Thus, America ended up with nearly 2/3 of global central bank gold by 1942.
Since America had made tons of loans in USD and countries did not have much gold left to pay US back,
we came up with the Bretton Woods System to prevent global insolvency of the debt-riddled world.
The US Dollar would be backed by gold at 335/OZ and each global currency would be backed/pegged to the USD to give confidence and stability to all the currencies.
**A key takeaway, war is NOT good for the economy unless you are the one selling everything to the combatants.**
4) 1971~present: "THE DOLLAR STANDARD - GLOBAL 100% FIAT"
All global currencies become fiat simultaneously when Nixon took the dollar off any sort of gold-backing in 1971 and bretton-woods was no more.
The world’s various currencies thus went to 100% fiat simultaneously and many floated.
Most of the media and Western/Keynesian trained economic professors said in America gold would tank in value. Instead gold skyrocketed from $35 to $850 an ounce (similar to bitcoin lol)
and then took many years to pull back only to make another run after the wake of the 2008 financial crisis up to $1900 and then pullback more recently ~$1000 and now at $1200.
Only the Austrian school economists were correct as they have been throughout time.
We are no poised to have another gold run when the next crisis starts if the US/central banks don’t try to manipulate it initially to keep it fixed.
The difference this time is China and rest of the world has much easier access to gold backed securities. I think this next run will go well above 15k.
5) "The next system"
I speculate we go back to a system of gold backed global currency + people’s money like bitcoin or other crypto and/or some form of either or both. Accumulate Gold/Silver and bitcoin/crypto
Reference the timeline from: Maloney's awesome "History of Money 10 part series"
youtube.com/playlist?list=PLE88E9ICdipidHkTehs1VbFzgwrq1jkUJ
Market outlook: major wave peak reached by ~2019 due to monetary debasement reaching end of cycle at fiat final stage.
S&P heading to 65%-80%+ declines and major bear market and global recessions.
This may take 2-3 decades to play out overall - see chart below.
Throughout all of history, in every single case a society or country debased their currency from 1:1 gold backing through a series of various currency debasement periods,
eventually ending up 100% fiat, that currency has collapsed.
This eventually has ALWAYS led to decline of society and collapse of the currency.
***Not a single example exists to dispute this FACT.***
DO NOT TRUST CENTRAL BANKS OR ACADEMICS AT THE FED! THEY ARE THE ROOT CAUSE OF SOCIETAL ILLS.
WE MUST STOP THIS REPUBLICAN VS DEMOCRAT INFIGHTING AND END THE FED!
Now history is repeating itself in all the same patterns across the globe and politics. It's unreal and amazing to witness at the same time.
In the last ~150 years we have had a new global currency about every 30-40 years and are long overdue on the next shift…
you see it coming though with SDRs (IMF basket of special drawing rights) and crypto/bitcoin evolutions.
Here is brief history of USD and global monetary systems since turn of century. :
1) 1873~1913 "1:1 GOLD BACKED CURRENCY"
US goes back to 1:1 gold backing after periods off in 1878. Previously the peg to gold was broken for a few years in 1862 to finance the civil war. Germany & rest of world follows.
Worthy to note was in 1913 the Federal Reserve was (secretly) created on Jekyll Island by cabal of bankers and instituted first (illegal) US income tax to skim off the people.
Prior to this creation of the fed and central banking, an unconstitutional income tax was never required through US history.
2) 1914~1944 "THE GOLD EXCHANGE STANDARD"
During WWI (1914~1918), all of the global combatant countries stopped their 1:1 gold pegs their gold redemption rights so they could fire up printing presses to finance their militaries.
This was the new monetary debasement across the world that ensued and different countries had different ratios of gold to their respective currency.
In US, we had under the Federal Reserve Act of 1913, a new 40% ratio which meant $50 worth of claim checks of currency in circulation to $20 of gold in the US vault.
3) 1944~1971 "THE BRETTON-WOODS SYSTEM
During both WWI & WWII, combatant ally countries paid America to finance their wars in gold given US didn't have much troops on the ground throughout most of both wars.
Instead US sold military equipment and food. Thus, America ended up with nearly 2/3 of global central bank gold by 1942.
Since America had made tons of loans in USD and countries did not have much gold left to pay US back,
we came up with the Bretton Woods System to prevent global insolvency of the debt-riddled world.
The US Dollar would be backed by gold at 335/OZ and each global currency would be backed/pegged to the USD to give confidence and stability to all the currencies.
**A key takeaway, war is NOT good for the economy unless you are the one selling everything to the combatants.**
4) 1971~present: "THE DOLLAR STANDARD - GLOBAL 100% FIAT"
All global currencies become fiat simultaneously when Nixon took the dollar off any sort of gold-backing in 1971 and bretton-woods was no more.
The world’s various currencies thus went to 100% fiat simultaneously and many floated.
Most of the media and Western/Keynesian trained economic professors said in America gold would tank in value. Instead gold skyrocketed from $35 to $850 an ounce (similar to bitcoin lol)
and then took many years to pull back only to make another run after the wake of the 2008 financial crisis up to $1900 and then pullback more recently ~$1000 and now at $1200.
Only the Austrian school economists were correct as they have been throughout time.
We are no poised to have another gold run when the next crisis starts if the US/central banks don’t try to manipulate it initially to keep it fixed.
The difference this time is China and rest of the world has much easier access to gold backed securities. I think this next run will go well above 15k.
5) "The next system"
I speculate we go back to a system of gold backed global currency + people’s money like bitcoin or other crypto and/or some form of either or both. Accumulate Gold/Silver and bitcoin/crypto
Reference the timeline from: Maloney's awesome "History of Money 10 part series"
youtube.com/playlist?list=PLE88E9ICdipidHkTehs1VbFzgwrq1jkUJ
Market outlook: major wave peak reached by ~2019 due to monetary debasement reaching end of cycle at fiat final stage.
S&P heading to 65%-80%+ declines and major bear market and global recessions.
This may take 2-3 decades to play out overall - see chart below.
Throughout all of history, in every single case a society or country debased their currency from 1:1 gold backing through a series of various currency debasement periods,
eventually ending up 100% fiat, that currency has collapsed.
This eventually has ALWAYS led to decline of society and collapse of the currency.
***Not a single example exists to dispute this FACT.***
DO NOT TRUST CENTRAL BANKS OR ACADEMICS AT THE FED! THEY ARE THE ROOT CAUSE OF SOCIETAL ILLS.
WE MUST STOP THIS REPUBLICAN VS DEMOCRAT INFIGHTING AND END THE FED!
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.