The 2-year sell and 10-year buy spread has returned to levels above 0, stabilizing around the 0.15 range.
Historically, since 1966, a return of this spread from the zone below 0 has inevitably led to either long-term or short-term crises.
In this case as well, we have all the necessary preconditions for at least short-term shocks in the securities market, despite the fact that the labor market remains at an acceptable 4.2%, inflation continues to stay above the Fed's target level, and both the manufacturing and services sectors are in a growth cycle.
As the U.S. presidential elections approach, particularly following the success of the Democrats, the SP500 could lose 15-20% in just a few months.
The forecasts from global banks are interesting, with JP Morgan's prediction standing out significantly. It is the only global bank expecting a roughly 20% drop in the benchmark index.
Historically, since 1966, a return of this spread from the zone below 0 has inevitably led to either long-term or short-term crises.
In this case as well, we have all the necessary preconditions for at least short-term shocks in the securities market, despite the fact that the labor market remains at an acceptable 4.2%, inflation continues to stay above the Fed's target level, and both the manufacturing and services sectors are in a growth cycle.
As the U.S. presidential elections approach, particularly following the success of the Democrats, the SP500 could lose 15-20% in just a few months.
The forecasts from global banks are interesting, with JP Morgan's prediction standing out significantly. It is the only global bank expecting a roughly 20% drop in the benchmark index.
gor_gevorgian
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gor_gevorgian
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.