SPX: Has the primary degree wave 4 started?
My thesis for market cycle top is that SPX is creating a massive ending diagonal since the Covid bottom in 2020. The March 2024 top of 5264.85 has reached the 0.5 fib extension, not exactly the 0.618 extension that I was hoping for. But the EW rules are still intact and the strong downward movement might be signaling that the local top is in. Now the rule for contracting ending diagonal is that Wave 3 is shorter than wave 1 and wave 4 must be shorter than wave 2. And most often than not, wave 4 will go inside the wave 1 territory. In that sense, price is likely to breach 4819, but cannot breach below 3824. Time should also be sooner than 280 days that took during wave 2 correction. At this moment I am predicting price might come down to 4500 by September. If, price bounces from this area and make another high, then this analysis changes. In that case, we have only seen wave 1 and 2 of wave C and the rally should extend quite a bit and still be a contracting diagonal until it breaches 7680. Right now leaning towards primary 4 correction and eventually market to top out between 6000 to 6300 by 2026, depending on where wave 4 completes.
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