1. Long-term Channel:
The SPX has been following a clearly defined logarithmic trend channel, with highs and lows confined within this channel for nearly a century.
2. Current Price Action (2025):
o The index recently broke through the upper bound of the historical channel in 2024.
o It's retraced back through the channel in March 2025.
3. Historical Reference Points:
o Significant points noted are the 1929 market crash, the 1932 market low, and subsequent recoveries and corrections.
o The marked reference points (1929, 1932, 1942, 2000, 2009, 2020, 2022, and 2024) show pivotal moments where the price interacted meaningfully with this long-term channel.
Key Observations and Considerations:
• Logarithmic Scale:
o This emphasizes percentage changes rather than absolute values, clearly showing the growth pattern and highlighting significant deviations from average trend growth.
• Long-term Perspective:
o For investors, this signals caution in the near-term, suggesting potential further downside.
o From a longer-term perspective, significant pullbacks within this historical channel have historically provided strong opportunities for long-term investment.
The SPX has been following a clearly defined logarithmic trend channel, with highs and lows confined within this channel for nearly a century.
2. Current Price Action (2025):
o The index recently broke through the upper bound of the historical channel in 2024.
o It's retraced back through the channel in March 2025.
3. Historical Reference Points:
o Significant points noted are the 1929 market crash, the 1932 market low, and subsequent recoveries and corrections.
o The marked reference points (1929, 1932, 1942, 2000, 2009, 2020, 2022, and 2024) show pivotal moments where the price interacted meaningfully with this long-term channel.
Key Observations and Considerations:
• Logarithmic Scale:
o This emphasizes percentage changes rather than absolute values, clearly showing the growth pattern and highlighting significant deviations from average trend growth.
• Long-term Perspective:
o For investors, this signals caution in the near-term, suggesting potential further downside.
o From a longer-term perspective, significant pullbacks within this historical channel have historically provided strong opportunities for long-term investment.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.