2017 FORECAST - S&P500 INDEX - Daily
Here we are again: January of a new year. The election is behind us. And the recount is behind us too. So many bombs dropped over the last year, both real bombs and word-bombs by Presidential candidates. The word-bombs seem to get all of the attention with Trump winning the "best word bomber" last year by Time Magazine as the "most noteworthy" person in the world. Now with that out of the way, once again we have the same variables facing the market: plenty of headwinds and tailwinds. See 2016 list, to your left in blue.
I like to start with an understanding of what "expectations are out there" and I do that with the Wall Street consensus for the Year-End S&P500. I added that with the RED BOX at the top which is around the 2300-2400 range. There are some above and below that range, but that gets 90% of the estimates.
The 2085 level was the launching point of this latest advance from before the election and that level was retested in the hours after the election results indicated Trump the winner. The market action up until that point, together with the lowest-ever-50-week readings of AAII Investor Sentiment Readings indicated to me that we had COMPLETED a bear market at this point in time. I view a bull market as 20%+ so a move to $2500 in the S&P would accomplish this technical feat. With plenty of skepticism, fears aplenty, high cash, massive retail selling of equities and mutual funds, high short positions, and "no bear market in prices" suggests very strongly that a 20% rally from 2085 is likely, and possible.
What I foresee happening in the first half of the year is the time window for Trump to get the most on the table for pro-growth, tax-cut, red-tape-cutting, Obama-care bashing, "Make America Great Again" pushes for change in the House and Senate. I hope we see Reagan-like Investment Tax Credits, Cuts in capital gains tax rates for young and small investors to get investment capital moving and to get banks lending again.
The second half of the year, especially towards the end of the year, I foresee a correction in prices back to the start of the year on signs that there is friction in the Republican Party and fears to make bold and broad changes to the tax laws and concerns about the credit rating and borrowing capacity of the US. The Democrats will be stalling with threats to shut down the Gov't and doing everything in their power to stop the changes Trump is pushing through.
Tim West January 12, 2017 10:54PM EST
I made this chart over a week ago and decided to keep ALL OF THE TEXT on the graph from past year's to show you that I didn't change anything. You can review the previous year's graphs from the links below for 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013. I must say the pressure is much higher after I have done four years in a row that are very close to what has happened. I think, in hindsight now, that it was easier because we had a 2nd term President who didn't change much in his view of the markets, economics, or philosophy. Whatever does happen, I wish you peace and harmony as you make your investment decisions throughout the year. Imagine different scenarios in advance and decide what you will do, in advance, so you can be better prepared when change does happen. Stay in touch throughout the year by clicking "follow" on this chart to get important updates. In the past two years I was able to catch the major bottoms and tops throughout the year.