S&P 500 IndexShort
SPX - ANDREW`S PITCHFORK APPLIED
First of all, i just discovered AP and i am still tweaking with its settings, log or linear chart, original, Schiff or else.
Anyway, in this chart i put a long AP from Aug 1982 low through 2000 high (huge bull cycle) and 2009 low, linear, original form.
Interesting is median line and its breaks in 1997 and 2013.
1/ I am tending to asses current SPX status rather according to 1999 than 2007, because of AP median line break, steepness of the trend, new ATH occuring, emas position, etc. Current SPX level is roughly at 76.4/78.6 AP parrallel line, what is around 76.4% from AP median break to the projected hit of upper AP line at 2263, total 777 point, same as in 1999.
2/ There is lot of talk around, that we need to correct curent move from Oct11 (assumed according EW as W3 but it can be sth. completely else), so the run to the blue upper AP line could wait a little and W4 can start anytime. Fib relations 76.4/78.6 are good levels for taking a pullback from 2080 before terminal move up, if it will come. Who knows, maybe we will get another nasdaq bubble like in 2000, btw. current biotech bubble is unfolding very nice so maybe nasdaq can revisit ATH - it sure will once happen, question is, what are chances it will happen in this approaching move?
3/ Following these presumptions, the awaited W4 (or whatever will it be) could be rather small than big, in order to hit the upper AP line along with the trend from AP median break in Jan13. Current megabullish price action and break of slow cci descending trendline both suggest that longterm momentum is not fading but raising.
4/ If i look at EUSTOXX50 picture, underdog for decade, it has potential around 10 pct up to the descending longterm trendline (Hi2000-Hi2007) in 3550 area, so SPX in tail could see them as well. Who actually predicted 2075 (upside surprise) for 2014?
5/ Conclusion, from 2080 pullback possible, but rather small, if any, probably to weekly ema100 at most, then target 2260 in Sep15.
6/ AND THEN, WHAT NEXT?
start of correction? end of correction? continuation of correction?
Anyway, in this chart i put a long AP from Aug 1982 low through 2000 high (huge bull cycle) and 2009 low, linear, original form.
Interesting is median line and its breaks in 1997 and 2013.
1/ I am tending to asses current SPX status rather according to 1999 than 2007, because of AP median line break, steepness of the trend, new ATH occuring, emas position, etc. Current SPX level is roughly at 76.4/78.6 AP parrallel line, what is around 76.4% from AP median break to the projected hit of upper AP line at 2263, total 777 point, same as in 1999.
2/ There is lot of talk around, that we need to correct curent move from Oct11 (assumed according EW as W3 but it can be sth. completely else), so the run to the blue upper AP line could wait a little and W4 can start anytime. Fib relations 76.4/78.6 are good levels for taking a pullback from 2080 before terminal move up, if it will come. Who knows, maybe we will get another nasdaq bubble like in 2000, btw. current biotech bubble is unfolding very nice so maybe nasdaq can revisit ATH - it sure will once happen, question is, what are chances it will happen in this approaching move?
3/ Following these presumptions, the awaited W4 (or whatever will it be) could be rather small than big, in order to hit the upper AP line along with the trend from AP median break in Jan13. Current megabullish price action and break of slow cci descending trendline both suggest that longterm momentum is not fading but raising.
4/ If i look at EUSTOXX50 picture, underdog for decade, it has potential around 10 pct up to the descending longterm trendline (Hi2000-Hi2007) in 3550 area, so SPX in tail could see them as well. Who actually predicted 2075 (upside surprise) for 2014?
5/ Conclusion, from 2080 pullback possible, but rather small, if any, probably to weekly ema100 at most, then target 2260 in Sep15.
6/ AND THEN, WHAT NEXT?
start of correction? end of correction? continuation of correction?
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.