LBR Three Ten Oscillator on weekly time frame issues sell signal
The LBR Three ten oscillator is on the edge of confirming a sell signal on the SP500. Other important charts for QQQ, VTI, and the Dow Jones are showing the same weekly sell signal. A chart of international equities like VXUS could be about 1-2 weeks away from giving the same signal, and EEM may be just slightly behind that.
I'm seeing some stocks return to levels they experienced in the first quarter of 2020, but QQQ, SPY, VTI have not. It could be the broader indices chance to meet the same fate as many stocks that have returned to early covid pricing. A few stocks I follow that have all returned to Q1 2020 levels are: AMD, AMZN, C, CRM, DIS, EPR, FDX, IIPR, INTC, JAZZ, LYB, MDT, MU, NFLX, PCH, PYPL, RDFN, SPG, WRK, ZIM
What I'm doing: I currently have a high cash position. I still own some equities in the value category and individual stocks that have strong cash flow, low pe ratios, and have already returned to Q1 2020 levels. I don't believe these stocks will be immune from a downturn but my own philosophy requires some equity exposure at all times and I expect that they outperform on a relative basis. I've reduced exposure on the SP500 and overall market and will look for a better entry point.
If the weekly breakdown on the LBR oscillator is anything like the 3 previous instances this year, which averaged 63 days and an 11.66% drawdown, the SP500 would get back to the price it was at in Jan of 2020 around the 3350 level. This move makes sense when looking at so many individual stocks that have already made the same move and when we understand the actions of a Fed attempting to unwind it's stimulative actions that were put in place around that time.
I might short some stocks, or buy puts/put spreads, but for my own semi-conservative strategy, holding a market neutral fund or just being in cash (at 4%) is satisfactory.
I'm seeing some stocks return to levels they experienced in the first quarter of 2020, but QQQ, SPY, VTI have not. It could be the broader indices chance to meet the same fate as many stocks that have returned to early covid pricing. A few stocks I follow that have all returned to Q1 2020 levels are: AMD, AMZN, C, CRM, DIS, EPR, FDX, IIPR, INTC, JAZZ, LYB, MDT, MU, NFLX, PCH, PYPL, RDFN, SPG, WRK, ZIM
What I'm doing: I currently have a high cash position. I still own some equities in the value category and individual stocks that have strong cash flow, low pe ratios, and have already returned to Q1 2020 levels. I don't believe these stocks will be immune from a downturn but my own philosophy requires some equity exposure at all times and I expect that they outperform on a relative basis. I've reduced exposure on the SP500 and overall market and will look for a better entry point.
If the weekly breakdown on the LBR oscillator is anything like the 3 previous instances this year, which averaged 63 days and an 11.66% drawdown, the SP500 would get back to the price it was at in Jan of 2020 around the 3350 level. This move makes sense when looking at so many individual stocks that have already made the same move and when we understand the actions of a Fed attempting to unwind it's stimulative actions that were put in place around that time.
I might short some stocks, or buy puts/put spreads, but for my own semi-conservative strategy, holding a market neutral fund or just being in cash (at 4%) is satisfactory.
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