Cyclical Apocalypse 2023
The recession we predicted in August is almost here. Prepare for monetary meltdown. Things to look forward to next year:
- Mass layoffs (started in q4) and spike in unemployment rate
- Retail earnings miss heavily with a bad holiday season
- Industrial production drops sharply
- Used car bubble pops
- Mass consumer defaults on car loans
- Housing market collapse
- Credit spread blowout
- Zombie companies reduced to rubble
- Mass bankruptcies
- Negative real growth in all four macro sectors (income, production, consumption, employment, etc)
- Various crypto exchanges insolvent
- Mass panic and bank runs
- SPY -30% to -70% drop
- Disinflation and then deflation (not stagflation)
- Energy bear market
- Corporate rates turn into junk
- Municipal bond meltdown
- Emergency fed pivot but only after something dire breaks
- Massive bond rally (tail end)
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