Conviction: 3/5 SPY could continue to outperform ACWX for another year as in 2015-2017 period.
Main Thesis
Weekly RSI of SPY outperformance nearing overbought area, which have historically identified about 3 months of underperformance when SPY/ACWX touches 50W or 100W MA.
Monthly RSI also approaching overbought.
Daily RSI seems to be rolling over, but not definitive yet.
Relative performance also nearing historical MT channel since 2011/2012
Potential Risks
Historically international stocks do not seem to offer much protection during downturns. In fact, they seem to underperform SPY.
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